TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x75a2…6992

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 57 out of 100; worst F1 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT2951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$895Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+213.8%+$1,913.88
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.65
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.96
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,763Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,762.72
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$4,315Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+58.6%+$2,527.06
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,695Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$1,492.21
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$860.01
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$9,388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,388.2
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,300
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$946Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$946.14
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,072Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,071.69
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.5
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,084Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,083.97
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$340.99
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+50%+$339.78
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,689Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$1,540.16
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$945Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$555
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.21
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$641.28
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,579Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,579.05
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,270.57
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$685Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$685
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+41%+$201.41
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$1,162.71
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,398Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+196.9%+$2,752.46
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,479.97
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$4,311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,311
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,782Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+619.2%+$17,226.12
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+134.4%+$4,300
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,990Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,990
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,380
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$970.59
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.3
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$613Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$612.5
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$724Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$724
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$1,224.14
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+98.3%+$688.38
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$970.59
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$616Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$616.1
All 16 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$466
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.