TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcb7e…28dd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
116
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT8936%32 W · 57 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 89 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.73
Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Drake attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.65
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.42
Will Tom Brady attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.55
Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.01
Will Timothée Chalamet attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.57
Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.88
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.79
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.32
Will Dynamite be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$38.72
Will Daisies be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$161.06
Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$62.07
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$93.66
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.1
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
Will Erling Haaland score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
Will Erling Haaland score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.77
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+31%+$4.26
Will Erling Haaland score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.7
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.94
Will Lionel Messi score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$4.79
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.87
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.52
Showing 25 of 89 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.05
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Charli xcx - Music, Fashion, Film" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$9.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.