Fifa International · resolved market
Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d2d97a127e5f31fafe5fe3ee595f4f9f3fdb3fdaa9d2f287162f9fc6bbeb74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 32c | 2,029$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.66 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15be…a62fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,563$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 23c | 1,541$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.47 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,084$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.63 | 249 | 54.2%135 W · 114 L | +40.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 26c | 1,024$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.71 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 66c | 712.8$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 512 | 28.9%148 W · 364 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Yes | 33c | 604.45$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.47 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 62c | 411.81$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…680ebacked No | 64c | 411.02$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 63c | 404.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 34c | 360.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 18c | 274$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 33c | 265.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 73c | 260.2$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 34c | 248.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…c32ebacked Yes | 34c | 248.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 36c | 227.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 28c | 222.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 176 | 32.4%57 W · 119 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 68c | 185.28$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd50…3bb1backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 31c | 95.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde68…42cebacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed No | 68c | 78.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…4e9ebacked Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 68c | 73.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…1e3abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17d…cc55backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…a8c1backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked Yes | 31c | 58.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…cf85backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…a252backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…36cabacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d42backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…3651backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 32c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 47.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae11…2d01backed No | 76c | 42.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +184.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…91e1backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 34.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ee…a180backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 489 | 61.3%300 W · 189 L | +71.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +1,011.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…c221backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…d265backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?this page
- Will 4 Minutes be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Hung Up be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Popular be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Vogue be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.