TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0b39…a8c1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$29.19
Will Erling Haaland score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$101
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$399
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.15
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$327.6
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.9
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$272
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.8
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.71
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.06
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$178.2
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.3
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$238.5
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+41.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$126.54
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.25
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$68.22
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.33
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+180.5%+$176.95
All 7 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.33
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yordan Alvarez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Denmark win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.