MLB · resolved market
Will Yordan Alvarez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa628ade31961c95de5d7b63648ea8b0080563dfec46a98b8d88bf419ab04e70b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 49c | 307.14$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 15c | 273.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 23c | 222$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.94 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…75a8backed Yes | 47c | 211.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 51c | 184$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…b675backed Yes | 54c | 130.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…725fbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…985abacked Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…69a2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…2a23backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…a8c1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…afedbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3285…05aebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yordan Alvarez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?this page
- Will Ben Rice record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
- Will Bobby Witt Jr. record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will CJ Abrams record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Ernie Clement record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Freddie Freeman record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Juan Soto record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Mike Trout record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Otto Lopez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
- Will Shea Langeliers record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.