MLB · resolved market
Will Freddie Freeman record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab09a369b36d1127bdb6fc7eb496a8aa8bb411c43ba8c2b9358810d38320917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf64…9b58backed No | 60c | 1,479$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 57c | 587.41$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…f597backed Yes | 31c | 446$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…3281backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 39c | 240$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 31c | 218.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 206.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 30c | 205$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 70c | 204$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 36c | 198$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked Yes | 32c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5143…15ebbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 69c | 91.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…a4c9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…69a2backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…3a1fbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…985abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freddie Freeman record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?this page
- Will Ben Rice record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
- Will Bobby Witt Jr. record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will CJ Abrams record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Ernie Clement record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Juan Soto record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Mike Trout record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?No won
- Will Otto Lopez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
- Will Shea Langeliers record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
- Will Yordan Alvarez record a hit at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.