TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x32c5…adc9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 52 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Groupon (GRPN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+49%+$10.57
Will Waystar (WAY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.26
Will Teladoc Health (TDOC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.08
Will Penske (PAG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will Caesars Entertainment (CZR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$9.88
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will JPMorgan say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$20.52
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$76.29
Will Marco Rubio attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will Dynamite be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will the announcers say "Transition" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
All 7 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AIlast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Spirit make CS2 EWC Grand finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Team Falcons make CS2 EWC Grand finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
La Velada del Año 6: Marta Díaz vs. Tatiana Käerbacked Díaz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.