Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f7b3bea9fbcc5eb3df8f23e5ab7e4ebe85e9aafd2245f511539e226fe922442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 59c | 1,397$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 39c | 519.98$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 500$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.65 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 41c | 442.24$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.3 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 21c | 381.91$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…6286backed Yes | 43c | 367.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 42c | 297.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 42c | 281$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.78 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 49c | 268.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.44 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 44c | 247.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed Yes | 37c | 237.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 234.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 226.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 208.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98e…daa3backed No | 49c | 188.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 187$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 59c | 169.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 149.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…9a33backed No | 46c | 149.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 61c | 144.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 137$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6798backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 46c | 106.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed Yes | 23c | 104.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 97.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 42c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 76c | 81.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 33c | 75.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 66c | 72.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 68.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 80c | 51.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 49.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 54c | 49.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…13cfbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 42c | 48.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 67c | 47.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…7cc0backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 38.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 36.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 47c | 35.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed No | 59c | 35.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 35.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 37c | 33.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fa…e692backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…9d03backed No | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 42c | 31.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 56c | 31.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 43c | 27.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…fbe2backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…a4e3backed No | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?this page
- Will ISM Services PMI be at least 58.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be below 50.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.