Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c1b09ab728c0ab8cd3a8c22c2a2693efd601f348d4899b508b56f674c17c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 1,720$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.72 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 17c | 665.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 76c | 477.56$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 192.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed No | 66c | 190$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 31c | 162.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 71c | 154.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 137.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 32c | 117$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 32c | 116.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed Yes | 23c | 104.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 21c | 102.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 38c | 82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 79.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 74.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 68.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 21c | 63.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 53.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…13cfbacked Yes | 22c | 46.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 41.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 79c | 28.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 77c | 24.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 63c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…48bfbacked No | 79c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa274…0f58backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?this page
- Will ISM Services PMI be at least 58.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be below 50.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?Yes won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Services PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.