Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa568b8edfcb8e91babe4715da9e867f38e81d80c4f85b9ee20ce71b0b890a2b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 60c | 667.47$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.47 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 559.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 337.01$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 306.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 257.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 59c | 254$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 40c | 250.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…11b4backed Yes | 40c | 215.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 185.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 159.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 131.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 123.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 120.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 107$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 104.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 103.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 36c | 101.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 95.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 93.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 80.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 62.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 61.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 57.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 52.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 51.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed Yes | 31c | 50.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 47.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 45.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 42.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 37.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 31c | 32.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 32.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…200fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 38c | 29.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 62c | 21.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 73c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 63c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.