TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes43c793.3$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.339951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c731.93$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.58,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes35c506.76$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.561,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No30c457.17$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.935323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d7e…3660backed Yes51c324.2$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.015328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c288.63$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.022,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c272.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes41c250$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.0119720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No5c242.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.333,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No59c230.24$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.324,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c207.26$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.465,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No77c195$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.158756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No63c191.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c185.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.912,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes23c181$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.372,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No57c174.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.82,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No76c174.39$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4292678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.517553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes77c129.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.684065%26 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No28c126.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.431,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No34c125.52$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.54,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes23c122.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.251,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes26c112.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6854735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes61c109$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.016619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No74c105$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.084,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb7…95b2backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4354143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No58c97.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes67c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c89.37$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.074,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No73c87.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes23c84.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.143,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No20c83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.554,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c78.84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.554,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ed…463ebacked No36c75.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.423240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1987…01d9backed Yes66c75.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No17c74.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.372,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes70c73.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No65c71.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7942547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.86,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes48c60.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.592,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9346452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c57.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.066,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c55.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c52.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.824,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes33c52.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No76c52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.521,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7390…48edbacked Yes23c51.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.252231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes44c50.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.582,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes39c50.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes27c50.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7112233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8249675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.516453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes39c49.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.426243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c47.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No70c44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c43.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd6…200fbacked Yes70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.86911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes70c42.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.678667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No74c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.62,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f88…5f64backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes51c39.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2456322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd15…5919backed Yes79c38.76$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.14757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick74cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes54c34.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.913,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…443cbacked Yes69c32.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No80c30.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6431564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes55c27.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5219166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes71c27.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0114151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes60c26.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.673246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c26.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.257,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes76c26.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3517956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.921,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No75c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.739768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56e3…9a51backed No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010830.6%33 W · 75 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.254,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x758d…9548backed Yes55c20.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.335133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.672624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0a…65abbacked No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633876.6%259 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick78cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No79c18.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5587437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No80c18.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7255261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No79c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.173,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No78c15.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f61…0deabacked Yes67c15.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.