Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27ae5e76fd0554fb9296e6a0453707f8d9ebcaeb65aa65c66b64180737e6fc60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 43c | 793.3$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.3 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 731.93$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 506.76$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.56 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 30c | 457.17$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 51c | 324.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.01 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 288.63$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 41c | 250$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 242.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 230.24$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 207.26$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 77c | 195$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 191.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 185.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 181$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 174.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 174.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 77c | 129.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 126.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 125.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 122.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 26c | 112.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 61c | 109$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 105$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…95b2backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 97.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 89.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 87.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 84.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 78.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 36c | 75.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed Yes | 66c | 75.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 17c | 74.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 70c | 73.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 71.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 48c | 60.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 57.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 55.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 52.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 33c | 52.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 23c | 51.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 44c | 50.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 39c | 50.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 27c | 50.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 39c | 49.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 47.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 43.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…200fbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 70c | 42.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…5919backed Yes | 79c | 38.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 34.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…443cbacked Yes | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 80c | 30.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 55c | 27.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 71c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 26.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 76c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 55c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 80c | 18.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 78c | 15.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f61…0deabacked Yes | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.