Commodities · resolved market
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5afb81cbd0ca3356dbebedd49cf667288207766206238b18b34c500b52c88345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 52c | 16,241$8,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,368.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 39c | 11,068$4,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,804.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 67c | 10,052$6,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,754.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 35c | 8,000$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,178.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 69c | 7,364$5,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 38c | 6,892$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,288.48 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 51c | 5,860$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 39c | 4,883$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,983.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…5a6fbacked No | 66c | 4,400$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,943$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 46c | 3,714$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 39c | 3,597$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.91 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 64c | 3,448$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.98 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 50c | 3,385$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.5 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 66c | 3,280$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.03 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 2,900$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.99 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 43c | 2,800$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.67 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 61c | 2,709$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…4991backed No | 62c | 2,702$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…27d2backed Yes | 56c | 2,200$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 32cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Yes | 37c | 2,039$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 22c | 1,833$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 61c | 1,778$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 41c | 1,710$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 49c | 1,545$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.7 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 50c | 1,455$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.36 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 55c | 1,303$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed Yes | 40c | 1,244$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 1,225$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.9 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 60c | 1,214$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.19 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 24c | 1,212$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…4f15backed No | 58c | 1,202$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 65c | 1,200$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 30c | 1,199$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.37 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 61c | 1,050$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.91 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,047$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.75 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 51c | 1,033$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 35c | 999.99$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.5 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…45c4backed Yes | 36c | 897.47$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 28c | 893.43$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.15 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 46c | 878.64$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…0f0ebacked Yes | 36c | 874.7$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 28c | 865.3$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 56c | 860.91$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.37 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 30c | 856.85$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.52 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 61c | 821.94$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 42c | 807.77$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 39c | 770$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 78c | 711.8$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…b77dbacked Yes | 33c | 700.36$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 44c | 692.86$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 41c | 677.38$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.95 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 20c | 660.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 39c | 629.24$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.55 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 45c | 590$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 64c | 590$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.6 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 556.65$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 55c | 555.61$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.61 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked No | 59c | 512.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d4…cd01backed No | 66c | 505.13$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 44c | 502.37$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 54c | 499.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 66c | 499.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 69c | 476.42$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.03 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 49c | 459.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…5e3abacked No | 55c | 455.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 17c | 449.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 53c | 442.58$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.67 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed No | 60c | 430$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +422.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…3b70backed No | 66c | 422.11$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 37c | 419.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed Yes | 48c | 418.98$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 53c | 417.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 45c | 400.85$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 31c | 400$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…a9efbacked No | 57c | 400$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 50c | 399.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 35c | 399.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.99 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…650fbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 67c | 332.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…1148backed No | 47c | 322.75$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 33c | 319.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.55 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 54c | 310.19$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…00f5backed Yes | 33c | 306.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.38 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Yes | 65c | 282$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 72c | 280$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 70c | 279.59$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 31c | 278.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 277.87$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe28d…0274backed No | 55c | 270$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 256.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.