TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$223,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No52c16,241$8,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,368.731838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes39c11,068$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,804.761764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.26per pick39cpaid+58.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x85a8…9281backed No67c10,052$6,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,754.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes35c8,000$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,178.47728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes69c7,364$5,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,314.192152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes38c6,892$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,288.483718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed Yes51c5,860$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.541656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x020f…de5ebacked Yes39c4,883$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,983.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6af7…5a6fbacked No66c4,400$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,910.83785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,943$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.092221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes46c3,714$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.252339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes39c3,597$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.912321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No64c3,448$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.985048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No50c3,385$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.54810.4%5 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No66c3,280$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.0311734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,124$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.511,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c2,900$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.9994240.2%379 W · 563 L-69.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes43c2,800$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.675527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No61c2,709$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6516434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+526.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd396…4991backed No62c2,702$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1086…27d2backed Yes56c2,200$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick32cpaid+135.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf025…48f8backed Yes37c2,039$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+186.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No22c1,833$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.211346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed No61c1,778$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.841838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes41c1,710$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.91764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+93.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No49c1,545$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.72927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes36c1,500$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No50c1,455$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.3627322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No55c1,303$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.221827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x051f…0690backed Yes40c1,244$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes46c1,225$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.914031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No60c1,214$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.1932023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked Yes24c1,212$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.261145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa55f…4f15backed No58c1,202$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked No65c1,200$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+116.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No30c1,199$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.371987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No61c1,050$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.914168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Yes30c1,047$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.75887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick60cpaid+45.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No51c1,033$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.211855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes35c999.99$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.511921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2110…45c4backed Yes36c897.47$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes28c893.43$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.1511032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed No46c878.64$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…0f0ebacked Yes36c874.7$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.451266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes28c865.3$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.361050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No56c860.91$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.379745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes30c856.85$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.525916.9%10 W · 49 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5018…6108backed No61c821.94$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes42c807.77$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.82812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed Yes39c770$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No78c711.8$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick69cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d89…b77dbacked Yes33c700.36$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes44c692.86$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.681266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+50.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14be…4498backed Yes41c677.38$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.952420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9013…fc71backed Yes20c660.4$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes39c629.24$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.557231.9%23 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48a…e256backed Yes30c600$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No45c590$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.32035%7 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No64c590$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.62665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No29c556.65$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.865747.4%27 W · 30 L+13.8wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+54.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes55c555.61$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.612638.5%10 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.18per pick21cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x121d…832abacked No59c512.64$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d4…cd01backed No66c505.13$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed No44c502.37$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30011133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No54c499.99$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.24045%18 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked No66c499.98$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.992128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes69c476.42$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.032931%9 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-54.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes49c459.01$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.62222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…5e3abacked No55c455.01$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No17c449.25$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.281637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes53c442.58$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.673138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+137.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07f2…ee29backed No60c430$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+422.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc011…3b70backed No66c422.11$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes37c419.27$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.141040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7c…93b2backed Yes48c418.98$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.87560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked No53c417.4$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.251435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No45c400.85$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.383839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes31c400$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27810938.5%42 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5605…a9efbacked No57c400$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5372…4b1fbacked No66c400$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed No60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed No50c399.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+36.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes35c399.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.993256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7711…650fbacked Yes15c333.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No67c332.99$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.11369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66be…1148backed No47c322.75$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes33c319.31$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.553644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No54c310.19$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.911338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3346…00f5backed Yes33c306.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.381723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1807931.6%25 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Yes65c282$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed No72c280$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.63246.9%15 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+268.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No70c279.59$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.38425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Yes31c278.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.511361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No68c277.87$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.727532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe28d…0274backed No55c270$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.540%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c256.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7535334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.