Commodities · resolved market
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2df33944c6e62576bc316380f8cde04480bafbd4b16f918b8125330d16c48b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 1c | 2,440$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 10c | 2,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 2c | 1,460$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,199$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 1c | 1,155$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…8144backed No | 4c | 1,004$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 5c | 661.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 7c | 582.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed No | 3c | 527.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 438.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 418.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.56 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 299.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 31c | 269.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 10c | 246.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 196.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.73 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…f2cfbacked Yes | 10c | 180.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 176.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.64 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked No | 6c | 159.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 60c | 114.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 112.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 14c | 91.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed No | 22c | 73.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 34c | 58.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 64c | 47.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 42c | 36.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked Yes | 40c | 29.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 19.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?this page
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.