Commodities · resolved market
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x220d507c2e1838bd2f89bcb3d8e81208dd9a28cfc4ca40a2eaab9d45611957d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 12,239$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 9,583$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.68 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 7,877$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 1c | 6,122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 14c | 4,257$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 29c | 3,948$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 2,311$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.87 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…ab31backed Yes | 15c | 2,223$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 1,700$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.7 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 42c | 1,617$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.94 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,526$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 49c | 1,524$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 47c | 1,272$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.89 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,257$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 69c | 1,164$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,085$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 5c | 1,049$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,040$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…fc39backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 60c | 997.22$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.57 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 996.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 969.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 72c | 967.3$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 14c | 819.63$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 5c | 772.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 760.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…1a1dbacked Yes | 9c | 713.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 2c | 705.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 9c | 686.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 15c | 672.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 54c | 648.03$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 617.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…5487backed Yes | 33c | 602.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 31c | 583.2$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 555$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 517.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 4c | 510.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 10c | 498.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…72debacked No | 79c | 490.53$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 473.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 22c | 457.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 65c | 427$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd989…0087backed Yes | 8c | 392.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 26c | 387.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 12c | 357$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes | 30c | 331.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 9c | 330.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed No | 33c | 301.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 12c | 299.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 25c | 297.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 6c | 291.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 60c | 275.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 36c | 270.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.58 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…3250backed Yes | 18c | 255.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…a98fbacked No | 75c | 221.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 55c | 208.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…f463backed Yes | 25c | 205$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 202.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +120%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 13c | 188.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e8…c85fbacked Yes | 6c | 166.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 75c | 155.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 152$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 8c | 148.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 23c | 141.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 13c | 137.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed Yes | 30c | 135.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 21c | 127.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 65c | 126.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…6208backed Yes | 13c | 122.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed No | 72c | 107.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 15c | 104.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 30cpaid | +262.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 28c | 67.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…df31backed Yes | 18c | 66.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed No | 48c | 62.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 29c | 51.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 48c | 48.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Yes | 53c | 46.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?this page
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.