TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$129,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c12,239$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.82195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-92.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes3c9,583$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.685916.9%10 W · 49 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c7,877$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.36474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes1c6,122$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes14c4,257$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes29c3,948$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.29728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes7c2,311$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.874723.4%11 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0def…ab31backed Yes15c2,223$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes3c2,100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.52814.3%4 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes2c2,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+526.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes13c1,700$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.793840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes42c1,617$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.945040%20 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed Yes2c1,531$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.841040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes6c1,526$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8214031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes49c1,524$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051f…0690backed Yes14c1,500$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes3c1,400$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick58cpaid+33.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No47c1,272$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.891776.5%13 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.36per pick41cpaid+94.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes1c1,257$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes13c1,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed No69c1,164$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c1,085$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.651987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes5c1,049$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c1,040$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103020%6 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes7c1,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f0…fc39backed Yes2c999.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes4c999.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354045%18 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes60c997.22$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.573737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c996.84$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.721,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes5c969.01$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.615018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked No72c967.3$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.561435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes14c819.63$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.981625%4 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes5c772.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.224030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes4c760.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1827322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x595c…1a1dbacked Yes9c713.58$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+90.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Yes2c705.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14be…4498backed Yes9c686.91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.062420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes15c672.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes54c648.03$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c617.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.241035.8%6 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed Yes33c602.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+160.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes31c583.2$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.91764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.26per pick39cpaid+58.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes3c555$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.619914.1%14 W · 85 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes4c517.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.094810.4%5 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes4c510.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.424143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes10c498.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.433132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bce…72debacked No79c490.53$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.02666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes15c473.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.393718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed Yes22c457.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No65c427$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.922123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd989…0087backed Yes8c392.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes26c387.76$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.45825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes12c357$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8411133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes6c338.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes30c331.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5cd…6055backed Yes9c330.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…33c0backed No33c301.52$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.021520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes14c300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4610938.5%42 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes12c299.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.987832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes25c297.62$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes6c291.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.522711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+120.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed No60c275.79$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No36c270.16$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5815056%84 W · 66 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+40.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb50…3250backed Yes18c255.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed Yes30c233.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x46ea…a98fbacked No75c221.14$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.14771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked Yes15c220$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7850%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No55c208.01$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.265747.4%27 W · 30 L+13.8wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+54.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9480…f463backed Yes25c205$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.71944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+127.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes10c202.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7118540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes48c200$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+120%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes13c188.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.441450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89e8…c85fbacked Yes6c166.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No75c155.5$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.293268.8%22 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+164.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c152$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf025…48f8backed Yes69c150$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes8c148.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes23c141.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.532152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes13c137.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1523323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed Yes30c135.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.54875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+84.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes21c127.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No65c126.53$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.71428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+131.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6196…6208backed Yes13c122.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed No72c107.4$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes15c104.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.265036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.321015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f71…4e83backed No37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick30cpaid+262.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes28c67.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.871323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-54.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd487…df31backed Yes18c66.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a4…dbc9backed No48c62.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes29c51.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+50.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.16155.7%34 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b9…40bfbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.552437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes48c48.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.191957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5587…5737backed Yes53c46.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.