TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5587…5737

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
279
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 60 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT9951.5%51 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$11.23
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$12.31
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$19.64
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)backed New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+141.7%+$120.59
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangersbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$30.56
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$99.42
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+115.6%+$57.79
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)backed Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.68
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$55.65
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)backed Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+153.3%+$114.94
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$20.45
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.85
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$43.47
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT5261.5%32 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+27.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.5
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.47
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$25.76
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$26.81
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$51.52
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$22.24
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$55.09
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+209.2%+$124.29
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.45
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$35.62
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$17.44
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+100%+$29.7
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+100%+$29.7
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$19.8
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$13.91
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+172.2%+$255.14
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$57.75
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$55.82
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.5
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tampere: Daniel Galan vs Gilles Arnaud Baillybacked Daniel Galan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zhengbacked Qinwen Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Risticbacked Mia Ristic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurelbacked Thomas Faurel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torresbacked Gonzalo Villanueva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Gironbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$39.1
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batallabacked Dusan Lajovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+146.4%+$19.85
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Kruegerbacked Ashlyn Krueger · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.54
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duranbacked Alexander Donski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$25.76
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baenabacked Andrea Pellegrino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$15.82
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkovabacked Dominika Salkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibsonbacked Talia Gibson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.35
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskayabacked Anastasia Potapova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$64.61
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencicbacked Belinda Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirantebacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$44.55
Jiujiang: Xinxin Yao vs Xiaodi Youbacked Xiaodi You · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$63.11
Abidjan 2: Michael Geerts vs Niels Viskerbacked Michael Geerts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Abidjan 2: Karim Bennani vs Karan Singhbacked Karan Singh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.22
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchovabacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$93.31
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovicbacked Hamad Medjedovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.19
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobollibacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.09
Santa Cruz: Valerio Aboian vs Thiago Seyboth Wildbacked Valerio Aboian · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$43.65
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT2564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.45
World Cup Finals: Coin Toss Resultbacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+205.3%+$205.34
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.5
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$116.67
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.76
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+95.1%+$23.78
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$143.9
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$42.65
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$19.64
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$12.88
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$15.98
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.76
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.76
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$14.06
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$21.43
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.68
All 25 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT1662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+144.9%+$86.07
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$48.46
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$44.55
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+126.7%+$75.28
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.4
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.51
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.64
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$28.54
Golden Knights vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.4
Wild vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.85
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.1
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$131.96
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.4
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$65.62
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+113.5%+$283.73
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.28
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.31
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+348.7%+$154.08
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+285.7%+$484.13
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.38
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$66.45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.17
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$451
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$18.1
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.1
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+163.3%+$81.67
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$23.32
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$21.08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$192.18
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-48.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.2
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$20.4
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$28.54
Will CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.44
Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$18.99
Independiente Medellín vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+100.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+92.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$57.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+191.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+191.8%+$142.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+97.2%+$78.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+50%+$276.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.