Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5529e51fd28f3889356225b596146ce93638e55f918e1d2a71a777faf5d9694a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ea8…9469backed Over | 66c | 3,099$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.71 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 65c | 2,989$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.61 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 2,646$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.27 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 1,828$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.59 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 36c | 1,459$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.25 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Under | 37c | 923.88$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.99 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…84f6backed Under | 35c | 839.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 379 | 55.7%211 W · 168 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 63c | 779.6$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.45 | 771 | 52.8%407 W · 364 L | +17.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 35c | 699.51$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.67 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…261bbacked Under | 35c | 550$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…d8c5backed Over | 65c | 509.55$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…9e8dbacked Over | 63c | 472.31$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.31 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Over | 65c | 419.98$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 71c | 356.32$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 35c | 347.12$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 65c | 340.27$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.09 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Under | 38c | 313.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 364 | 37.1%135 W · 229 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…4057backed Over | 65c | 300.38$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 30c | 297.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe053…fd08backed Under | 37c | 295.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…049cbacked Over | 65c | 290.77$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…11fbbacked Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…4f86backed Under | 34c | 233$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 35c | 232.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c9…4c22backed Over | 65c | 195.05$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 120 | 60.8%73 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 65c | 153.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Under | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…130fbacked Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 311 | 29.6%92 W · 219 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Over | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6443…cd12backed Over | 62c | 113.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…4e43backed Under | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 66c | 82.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee8…07c4backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed Under | 41c | 75.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 264 | 59.5%157 W · 107 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 35c | 74.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…616abacked Over | 67c | 74.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4a…99c5backed Under | 37c | 70.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…387abacked Under | 40c | 68.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 67.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 64c | 65.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 306 | 42.8%131 W · 175 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…4394backed Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e82abacked Under | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…55e7backed Over | 65c | 58.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 64c | 57.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Over | 66c | 57.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…5c4abacked Over | 64c | 46.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 65c | 46.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…abfbbacked Under | 36c | 42.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5859…a9b0backed Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…a8dcbacked Under | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…ec78backed Under | 36c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…c9ccbacked Over | 65c | 31.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf254…3a54backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6559…d3e1backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…ba37backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…bd73backed Under | 36c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…9ba4backed Over | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…29c1backed Over | 64c | 25.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Over | 65c | 24.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +15.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…3080backed Over | 65c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…c143backed Over | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)South Africa won
- Spread: South Africa (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: South Africa (-2.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.