Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf207909cce03987b2a38e143e6e66040e247ca317a63284b6a6fc1f21879e3fa

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $158,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $168,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,038 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Over	7c	15,497$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,097.82	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	7c	9,895$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.26	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked Over	10c	7,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over	10c	6,976$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	146	12.3%18 W · 128 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	10c	6,871$687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.12	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	10c	5,658$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.3	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2393…d54dbacked Over	9c	5,634$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.04	176	25%44 W · 132 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Over	9c	5,555$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.98	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-52%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	9c	2,668$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.13	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Over	10c	2,546$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.34	174	14.4%25 W · 149 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over	10c	2,455$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.5	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	10c	1,969$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.93	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	5c	1,599$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.74	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Over	4c	1,173$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.91	188	37.2%70 W · 118 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Over	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	21.8%12 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-12%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x69e3…0078backed Over	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	116	19.8%23 W · 93 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x372e…4453backed Over	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Over	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	644	43.3%279 W · 365 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9156…3d69backed Over	14c	840$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over	7c	768$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.81	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Over	9c	556$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	206	26.2%54 W · 152 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4e…bfe6backed Over	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e91…91a4backed Over	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7f9…1fcabacked Over	11c	363.64$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb735…ab09backed Over	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-39%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	11c	333$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.63	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a24…a0fdbacked Over	10c	325$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05f1…7a08backed Over	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cfc…661ebacked Over	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	127	11.8%15 W · 112 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22bc…b0b2backed Over	4c	274.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	10c	244.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	451	20.6%93 W · 358 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over	9c	242.58$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Over	5c	232.83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over	12c	216.93$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	334	43.4%145 W · 189 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e2…d5b2backed Over	14c	214.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	38.1%24 W · 39 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Over	9c	211.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	345	26.1%90 W · 255 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	6c	203.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ded…aa62backed Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b22…0c6fbacked Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Over	8c	199.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	326	42.9%140 W · 186 L	+10.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8c…bec4backed Over	11c	182.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba10…f103backed Over	10c	177.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over	11c	176.08$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcac9…47a9backed Over	10c	157.88$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe462…e436backed Over	9c	155.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	229	19.2%44 W · 185 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd424…bf7bbacked Over	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	90	33.3%30 W · 60 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over	9c	136.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	222	26.6%59 W · 163 L	-15.6wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x418b…3a98backed Over	10c	136$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	164	25.6%42 W · 122 L	-10.6wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8249…9169backed Over	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over	9c	119.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	823	48.8%402 W · 421 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6931…89cabacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	93	25.8%24 W · 69 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e3…411bbacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x67bc…5c86backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ecc…3ed9backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	19.8%16 W · 65 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	69	29%20 W · 49 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…d60fbacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc464…5139backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	335	44.5%149 W · 186 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f5…9c8cbacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.17per pick	30cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5this page
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)South Africa won
Spread: South Africa (-1.5)Mexico won
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)Mexico won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event