Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: South Africa (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb37389ec097eeb691f361a894e8811b89f9b9079b2a2dc28020936cd33246352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mexicoof South Africa, Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed South Africa | 3c | 9,471$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.59 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed South Africa | 2c | 7,840$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…7c09backed South Africa | 3c | 5,955$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 781 | 0.5%4 W · 777 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed South Africa | 2c | 5,361$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1b…d9d5backed South Africa | 3c | 3,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed South Africa | 2c | 2,129$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…a81bbacked South Africa | 3c | 1,830$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked South Africa | 2c | 1,089$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed South Africa | 3c | 1,048$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8de…3111backed South Africa | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4205…128ebacked South Africa | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…8969backed South Africa | 3c | 840.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594b…8377backed South Africa | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed South Africa | 3c | 805$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…a61cbacked South Africa | 2c | 654.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 30.6%44 W · 100 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed South Africa | 3c | 512$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e8…7f58backed South Africa | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Africa (-1.5)this page
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)South Africa won
- Spread: South Africa (-2.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.