Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5602899fbada3e694b64ce122e590df030e67ccbf3f17c89d885a7ee09ca6f35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 10c | 128,661$12,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,544.59 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 8c | 26,385$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.23 | 320 | 31.6%101 W · 219 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 8c | 14,659$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.71 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Under | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 207 | 24.6%51 W · 156 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 10c | 9,836$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.22 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 9c | 7,875$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.32 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 8c | 5,331$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.45 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 8c | 5,283$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.66 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Under | 8c | 4,114$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.1 | 176 | 25%44 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Under | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Under | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 8c | 3,632$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.93 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,547$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 213 | 14.1%30 W · 183 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Under | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 9c | 2,729$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 9c | 2,042$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 681 | 41.1%280 W · 401 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 9c | 1,851$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.55 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 1,658$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Under | 10c | 1,364$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccfc…678ebacked Under | 1c | 1,152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 26.5%81 W · 225 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 10c | 1,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 334 | 43.4%145 W · 189 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under | 3c | 1,098$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…875abacked Under | 3c | 1,043$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 515 | 14.2%73 W · 442 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Under | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 8c | 999.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 8c | 839.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…f4c3backed Under | 9c | 560.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Under | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…8913backed Under | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…d9f6backed Under | 9c | 479.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Under | 8c | 463.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked Under | 9c | 430.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 8c | 399.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 10c | 383.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 475 | 46.1%219 W · 256 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…0392backed Under | 9c | 380.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…7047backed Under | 8c | 358.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…0c6fbacked Under | 9c | 311.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 71 | 8.5%6 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 9c | 295.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Under | 8c | 252.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 197 | 23.4%46 W · 151 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 8c | 234.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 22.9%22 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…f491backed Under | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 823 | 48.8%402 W · 421 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…3a98backed Under | 9c | 207$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 164 | 25.6%42 W · 122 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 8c | 204.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 8c | 189.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…47a9backed Under | 8c | 176.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5this page
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)South Africa won
- Spread: South Africa (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: South Africa (-2.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.