TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,037 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over53c10,315$5,480 inLost-$5,480.298,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under47c8,756$4,115 inWon+$4,640.6110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under46c4,979$2,315 inWon+$2,664.3511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over40c2,062$825 inLost-$824.891252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over47c805.22$382 inLost-$382.429,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb45…0cadbacked Over53c782.98$415 inLost-$414.985350.9%27 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under67c715$482 inWon+$233.284,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9154…618ebacked Under44c441.35$194 inWon+$247.68977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+69.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over54c399$215 inLost-$215.463,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b92…7c8fbacked Over53c317.52$168 inLost-$168.297058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c237.88$121 inLost-$120.5712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5587…5737backed Over53c141.51$75 inLost-$759951.5%51 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e6…cb9fbacked Under48c131.21$63 inWon+$68.211369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Under66c121.15$80 inWon+$41.1943560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under48c115.88$56 inWon+$59.811,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over46c105.53$49 inLost-$48.731,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under41c87.01$36 inWon+$51.3469447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88e…929fbacked Under41c47.99$20 inWon+$28.321573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over41c41.96$17 inLost-$17.1411951.3%61 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Under67c41.19$28 inWon+$13.6110649.1%52 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over53c40.72$22 inLost-$21.5858649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Over53c36.68$19 inLost-$19.4440554.8%222 W · 183 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over41c27.11$11 inLost-$11.287370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x09a6…252abacked Over68c25$17 inLost-$179359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-9.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.