MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe057b1e7a22eb4c036cce37e93ca85d7a78b6b0c9f25f14ac2c950253531f281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 7,499$3,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,278.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 6,822$3,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,956.93 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 4,225$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.02 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 3,954$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 1,302$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.98 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 1,083$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,079$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.11 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 438$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 418.36$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.47 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 414.67$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 330$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 319.51$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 278$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 213$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 205.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 199.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 193.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 135.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 90.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 60.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 52.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 42.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 34.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 22.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.