MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f343f8e71f66fc8ad6fc6896cad7aec0b6a9859d317055c30232da89a7e80b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 51c | 26,670$13,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,601.89 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 9,431$4,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,807.91 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 8,913$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,545.63 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 1c | 2,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 2,022$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.25 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,746$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.75 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 974.26$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.87 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 931.04$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.33 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Over | 46c | 859.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 820.77$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.49 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 751.34$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.9 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 645.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 457.71$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 49c | 392.89$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.37 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 51c | 318.11$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 51c | 307$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 25c | 277.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 50c | 183.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 6c | 172.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 157.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 149.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 49c | 122$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 115.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 60c | 107.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 59c | 86.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 84.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 73.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 50c | 28.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 49c | 26.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Under | 51c | 20.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 59c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.