MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df71cb56bc0877cbd1cdc3da984d78310d927791ea7950ea72c409da852f244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 11,509$5,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,556.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 10,611$4,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,673.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 2,051$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.4 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 530$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 451.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 301$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.63 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 214$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 188$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 124.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 118.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 94.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 81.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 76.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 41.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 41.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…3f89backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 35.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 20.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 17.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.