TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Penguinsof Penguins, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,236,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,278,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,236,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 923 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Penguins46c755,446$351,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404,444.2620354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Flyers54c514,703$275,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275,940.0567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Flyers54c264,698$142,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,905.9428749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Flyers54c152,000$81,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,6807545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Flyers54c125,000$67,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,999.937946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Penguins46c119,536$54,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,549.5814650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins71c88,236$62,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,567.471,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Penguins46c82,247$37,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,413.1116442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Penguins47c72,760$34,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,272.4719848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Penguins46c67,640$31,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,299.071,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Flyers53c62,349$33,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,032.0410545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Flyers53c55,000$29,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,20041850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Flyers54c45,273$24,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,224.2540356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Penguins55c44,744$24,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,312.0518452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Penguins54c44,374$23,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,390.0737754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Penguins46c42,070$19,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,717.5718853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Penguins55c25,217$13,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,386.779157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4c4…475dbacked Flyers19c24,269$4,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Penguins54c21,872$11,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,068.949260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Penguins53c21,111$11,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,938.8933450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…7d41backed Penguins46c20,966$9,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,321.912343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Penguins46c13,565$6,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,334.7848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Flyers53c11,487$6,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,087.93339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins45c11,352$5,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,191.1259450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Flyers52c10,248$5,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,326.444161%25 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.881,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Penguins46c9,999$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.4812950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd344…6862backed Flyers53c9,535$5,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,053.363551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flyers32c9,489$3,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,024.281,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Flyers26c9,389$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.322,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Flyers53c8,337$4,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,418.7785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins46c8,084$3,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,358.171,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Flyers53c7,334$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.22365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Penguins46c7,110$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,812.7333151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…1eebbacked Flyers54c6,504$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins66c6,369$4,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.382,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Flyers52c6,149$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.3519353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Flyers35c6,117$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.0312146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Flyers53c6,028$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,173.561,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Flyers53c5,943$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,150.0331550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Penguins45c5,599$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,057.352050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Penguins48c5,323$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,767.948946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Flyers55c5,307$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9195660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Penguins69c5,230$3,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.340351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Penguins47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9829146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Flyers53c4,733$2,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.448845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Penguins48c4,553$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,367.754555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x630e…3a86backed Penguins64c4,522$2,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.933158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Penguins45c4,435$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.169038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Penguins46c4,294$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.4525447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Penguins56c4,108$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.7519759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Penguins48c4,037$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.072352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Penguins48c4,027$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.294555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Penguins71c4,000$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16015448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Penguins46c4,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,139.9926750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a0…eabbbacked Penguins46c3,934$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.431154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Penguins65c3,628$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.1789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Penguins50c3,476$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.5422853.9%123 W · 105 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Flyers26c3,423$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.5111251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Flyers55c3,216$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.915662.5%35 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Flyers52c3,129$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.8389249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Penguins46c3,121$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.5361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Penguins61c2,998$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.1712654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins74c2,920$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.031,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Penguins75c2,862$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.242,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Flyers54c2,835$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.514568.9%31 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Flyers50c2,704$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.185046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Flyers53c2,682$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.037258.3%42 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Flyers53c2,673$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.4876950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Penguins47c2,575$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.757761%47 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Flyers54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Flyers25c2,492$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.5413841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Flyers53c2,472$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.0527048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Penguins48c2,404$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.8383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe988…cf23backed Penguins45c2,300$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41dc…6bbebacked Flyers31c2,260$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.413641.7%15 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Flyers21c2,110$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.98445.2%38 W · 46 L+14.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb8af…03c2backed Flyers41c2,108$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.446750.7%34 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Flyers16c2,039$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.231833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Penguins61c2,015$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.5714946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8af8…adc5backed Flyers17c2,005$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Flyers51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9911153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Penguins45c2,000$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.8120450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9116…f76abacked Flyers52c1,911$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.781050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Flyers54c1,801$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.47755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Penguins46c1,799$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9733650%18 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Flyers18c1,761$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9629533.6%99 W · 196 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Penguins73c1,647$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.6538551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Penguins60c1,607$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.33,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Penguins45c1,606$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.0610663.2%67 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5c8…76b4backed Flyers31c1,545$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.159550.5%48 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Flyers54c1,521$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.986046.7%28 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3ad…45f9backed Penguins48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.993735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-30%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Flyers32c1,471$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.9934040.3%137 W · 203 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Flyers8c1,444$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6499638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5db9…e95fbacked Penguins47c1,400$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.945749.1%28 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Flyers53c1,400$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.7333554%181 W · 154 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Flyers52c1,361$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.8212355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins69c1,356$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.771,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Flyers29c1,343$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.353754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.