TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb19f…dd0e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
322
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 60 out of 100; worst Valorant at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT7365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$153.41
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$967Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$1,181.89
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$932.54
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$7,681Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+191.8%+$14,736.37
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$965Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$965.02
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$969Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,008.97
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$932.54
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$967Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$967
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,936Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$2,183.6
Timberwolves vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,939Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$2,017.93
Knicks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$969Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,008.97
Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$493Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+99.8%+$491.58
Celtics vs. Hornetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,083.33
Pistons vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$4,193Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$3,431.03
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,082.78
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$4,615.38
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$832.65
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+96.2%+$961.94
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$3,122.45
Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,868Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$3,107.3
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,464Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$1,406.87
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT5660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,919Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,919
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$896.49
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.6
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$382.49
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$963Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$1,506.86
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$367.46
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$968Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,091.45
Avalanche vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Canadiens vs. Islandersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+101.9%+$2,037.04
Oilers vs. Kingsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Blue Jackets vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,040.82
Oilers vs. Sharksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,000
Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$541.67
Flames vs. Golden Knightsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Canadiens vs. Rangersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$886.79
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$988Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$988.34
Ducks vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Sharks vs. Senatorsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Sabres vs. Panthersbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$960.88
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+112.8%+$451.06
Red Wings vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+109%+$545.24
Sabres vs. Devilsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,613Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+96.1%+$2,510.71
Penguins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,037Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$2,037.49
Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT4944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$975Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$677.82
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$977Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$624.38
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.95
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$753.43
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,398Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$1,098.58
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,864Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,863.67
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,935Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,934.5
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,905Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$3,147.02
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,944Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,943.6
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.1
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.7
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 4 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$966Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$965.8
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$970.15
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+114.6%+$573.14
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$1,703.7
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+30.8%+$31.03
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffsbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+58.7%+$37.35
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Bbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+43.1%+$129.43
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+59%+$1,901.81
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT4367.4%29 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$966Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$1,229.96
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)backed Burnley FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$974Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$734.92
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$367.46
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$969Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,008.97
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$962Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+169.8%+$1,633.76
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,338.58
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+35.4%+$1,061.15
Will Burnley FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,700Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+104.1%+$1,769.39
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+108.3%+$541.67
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+192.9%+$964.71
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+53.4%+$266.79
Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$377.19
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$514.77
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$194.44
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+26.6%+$132.91
Everton FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$545.16
AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+44.1%+$220.68
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$800
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3672.2%26 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Lol — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,958Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$1,456.77
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$973Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$973
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$275.18
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)backed Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$482.6
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$299.54
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,069Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$356.31
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$974Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$764.97
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winnerbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$975Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$705.97
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winnerbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,952Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$1,301.33
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$965Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$964.6
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$1,213.95
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+102.4%+$512.12
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+94.6%+$756.53
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+47.1%+$47.06
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+62.9%+$125.86
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winnerbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DRX (+1.5)backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$500
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX - Game 1 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$400
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+42.9%+$85.71
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+51.5%+$51.52
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked GAM Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+88.7%+$88.68
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stagebacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+31.6%+$31.58
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Play-Inbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+135%+$135.02
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT3638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Valorant — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$968Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$967.61
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked KRÜ Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,001Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$1,175.63
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,783Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$778.37
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omegabacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$565.38
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$467.89
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omegabacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,954Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$1,184.19
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$475.58
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$965Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+140%+$1,350.74
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.76
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$975Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$974.8
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$981Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$461.55
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,127.66
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winnerbacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+80.4%+$401.91
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$851.85
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+82.3%+$1,234.59
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked BBL Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,273Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,272.73
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,127.66
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$3,068.55
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$1,123.19
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,879.95
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$972Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$861.78
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$968Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,091.8
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed Newcastle United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$1,773.58
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+166.4%+$1,664.28
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$6,815.65
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$4,889.73
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,464Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,464.22
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$800
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+48.3%+$241.32
SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$137.14
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$400
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$500
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$678Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+93.5%+$634.61
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Girona FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,941Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$1,866.41
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$1,846.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$2,240.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.