TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leviatán Esportsof Leviatán Esports, Team Envy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Envy33c60,015$19,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,785.337236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Leviatán Esports67c54,821$36,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,112.4413651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Leviatán Esports66c17,460$11,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,920.8278162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Envy31c10,301$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.64740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Team Envy33c9,000$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.945242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Leviatán Esports78c7,491$5,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.0333153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Team Envy34c5,627$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.175246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Team Envy33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32026738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Team Envy20c3,700$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7406137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Leviatán Esports77c3,501$2,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.1631153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Leviatán Esports67c3,431$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.131450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Leviatán Esports73c3,415$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.2932462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Envy31c3,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92032047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Leviatán Esports70c2,994$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.0652155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Leviatán Esports69c2,871$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.746863.2%43 W · 25 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Leviatán Esports70c2,562$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.373638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Envy34c2,259$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.014630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Envy21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42012835.9%46 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b8e…a05fbacked Leviatán Esports67c1,598$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf82…91ccbacked Leviatán Esports67c1,463$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.792157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Leviatán Esports67c1,462$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.5419257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Team Envy29c1,371$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.179142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Envy4c1,212$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Team Envy34c960.4$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.543930.8%12 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed Team Envy32c899.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2845232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Team Envy19c852.49$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.595939%23 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbfa…27b2backed Team Envy10c842.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Envy34c838.73$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1754342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Team Envy23c815.83$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3121048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Envy33c800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2648640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Leviatán Esports67c788.55$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.223450%17 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd384…86dabacked Team Envy31c768.25$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.681618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Team Envy30c726.08$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.3929733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf342…a5e9backed Team Envy31c725.76$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.63333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Leviatán Esports73c694.65$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.715052%26 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Team Envy25c674.63$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.539346.2%43 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Team Envy23c665.71$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.417448.3%84 W · 90 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Team Envy34c658.16$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7718735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Leviatán Esports69c588.84$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.541464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Leviatán Esports74c573.41$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.218444%37 W · 47 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Leviatán Esports67c543.88$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.4818952.4%99 W · 90 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Leviatán Esports67c528.91$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.1924250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Team Envy37c520.11$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.444641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Team Envy30c510$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4528541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Team Envy27c503$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4114533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Envy32c501.41$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4261035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Team Envy33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1655846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Team Envy32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b60…5c4ebacked Team Envy9c497.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7810333%34 W · 69 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Team Envy31c480.29$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.892326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed Team Envy8c472.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7913158%76 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Team Envy20c448.46$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8132245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Team Envy37c430.74$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7742540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Leviatán Esports67c400.36$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1222955%126 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Leviatán Esports67c395.98$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6762156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9809…026dbacked Leviatán Esports67c378.09$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.774669.6%32 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Leviatán Esports67c365.75$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.718653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2655…eaa4backed Team Envy13c305.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.687930.4%24 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…563ebacked Team Envy34c288.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.962835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Envy7c274.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2468949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Team Envy33c273.68$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0720840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Team Envy12c272.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.934739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Team Envy7c258.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.154751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked Leviatán Esports66c221.61$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6414747.6%70 W · 77 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7b…c30dbacked Leviatán Esports67c219.45$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Envy34c211.85$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0325336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Envy12c191.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4370043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Leviatán Esports68c191$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3923447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Team Envy34c182.48$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0415942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d28…6b73backed Team Envy8c176$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Envy17c168.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115a…98e1backed Leviatán Esports66c163.27$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.511957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Leviatán Esports65c162.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Leviatán Esports63c156.45$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.897163.4%45 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Team Envy35c153.46$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.717655.3%42 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed Leviatán Esports64c151.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.99859.2%58 W · 40 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Leviatán Esports67c146.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2821144.1%93 W · 118 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Leviatán Esports67c146.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.283357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ac…6ac9backed Leviatán Esports67c146.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.281643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0a3…5f71backed Leviatán Esports66c145$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Leviatán Esports69c142.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.094060%24 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d3…96cbbacked Team Envy34c139.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a2…6fc8backed Team Envy34c139.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.581540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3464…8112backed Team Envy34c139.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62de…39fbbacked Team Envy34c139.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+71.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a46…5a7abacked Team Envy13c129.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Leviatán Esports67c125.18$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3194361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Team Envy34c123.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.126640.9%27 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked Leviatán Esports69c122.43$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9518651.1%95 W · 91 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Envy36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8560154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Team Envy34c118.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.276841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed Team Envy34c111.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8860%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8b5…c0f3backed Leviatán Esports67c110.21$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.371566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+53.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Team Envy19c100.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.111232.1%36 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcb…3a30backed Team Envy33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+42.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Envy17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1726634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d8…e2e8backed Leviatán Esports71c99.86$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.125151%26 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0825…5e07backed Leviatán Esports67c99.48$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.835054%27 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Leviatán Esports67c99.13$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7143059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0e…8763backed Leviatán Esports67c98.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3511056.4%62 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.