TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gentle Mates vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Gentle Mates, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$213,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,883 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4762…ba70backed Gentle Mates61c16,817$10,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,547.4413558.5%79 W · 56 L+11.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked EDward Gaming39c11,711$4,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,567.137236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c30…54a2backed Gentle Mates61c11,475$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,475.41560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f38…af70backed Gentle Mates64c10,165$6,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,640.861163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed EDward Gaming38c9,585$3,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.955728.1%16 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Gentle Mates61c7,652$4,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.7178162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb44…3eafbacked EDward Gaming28c7,064$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.051442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed EDward Gaming40c4,780$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.111020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Gentle Mates62c4,476$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.832369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed EDward Gaming38c3,831$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.781643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed EDward Gaming38c3,705$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.91060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Gentle Mates79c3,099$2,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.733857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed EDward Gaming40c2,997$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.5818457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gentle Mates72c2,646$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72919248.4%93 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Gentle Mates59c2,588$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.446365.1%41 W · 22 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked EDward Gaming40c2,505$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Gentle Mates60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00013345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed EDward Gaming32c2,278$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.8117537.7%66 W · 109 L-14.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x757f…311dbacked Gentle Mates60c2,216$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.672040%8 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Gentle Mates65c2,201$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.1762156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed EDward Gaming41c2,122$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.26256.5%35 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed EDward Gaming39c2,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77012835.9%46 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Gentle Mates73c1,832$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.1317463.8%111 W · 63 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked EDward Gaming38c1,782$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.212850%64 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed EDward Gaming38c1,750$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…665fbacked EDward Gaming16c1,725$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.24027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed EDward Gaming41c1,700$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6972147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gentle Mates69c1,510$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.9670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed EDward Gaming24c1,505$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5277929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked EDward Gaming40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.942751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked EDward Gaming29c1,411$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9711433.3%38 W · 76 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked EDward Gaming36c1,408$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50915343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed EDward Gaming38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006346%29 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Gentle Mates61c1,285$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.8919655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked EDward Gaming39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.821936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed EDward Gaming40c1,241$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4945125.5%13 W · 38 L-8.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Gentle Mates65c1,208$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.2613759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Gentle Mates61c1,162$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.7434847.4%165 W · 183 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed EDward Gaming41c1,144$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4696159%36 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked EDward Gaming28c1,117$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.5436138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Gentle Mates64c1,084$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.344835.4%17 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked EDward Gaming40c1,033$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2626738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7596…9773backed Gentle Mates57c1,003$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gentle Mates75c1,000$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.5265559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed EDward Gaming20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009837.8%37 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed EDward Gaming38c999.99$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3804637%17 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed EDward Gaming40c999.98$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e15…c613backed EDward Gaming19c981.29$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Gentle Mates62c930.01$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.0319257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed EDward Gaming43c863$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8316952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates75c861.67$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.571,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad84…1f2bbacked EDward Gaming40c860.57$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked EDward Gaming36c768$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.9161035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Gentle Mates56c738.8$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.7925347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed EDward Gaming40c699.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…191bbacked EDward Gaming5c647.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick8cpaid+704.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked EDward Gaming40c578.77$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.597953.2%42 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Gentle Mates78c555$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.155152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Gentle Mates80c551.11$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7388844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed EDward Gaming24c532.96$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1426634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed EDward Gaming39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Gentle Mates64c508.26$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.271154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Gentle Mates63c502.22$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8710551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked EDward Gaming45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.516639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Gentle Mates66c487.48$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.9868458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed EDward Gaming42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Gentle Mates65c475$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.56647%31 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked EDward Gaming36c466.39$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.96762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed EDward Gaming39c452.04$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed EDward Gaming27c451.28$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7331634.2%108 W · 208 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed EDward Gaming39c440$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.63145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked EDward Gaming38c407.89$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1557044.3%31 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Gentle Mates62c398.78$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7834253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Gentle Mates60c391.33$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.265650%28 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Gentle Mates59c390$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.928247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Gentle Mates55c388.45$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.5228541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b4…834ebacked Gentle Mates60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.331776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Gentle Mates64c328.57$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1189750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed EDward Gaming44c324.72$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3653159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2655…eaa4backed EDward Gaming41c315.88$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.517930.4%24 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Gentle Mates77c313.28$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4278562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed EDward Gaming38c302.95$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0627546.2%127 W · 148 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa50b…22dabacked EDward Gaming27c299.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a32…9875backed EDward Gaming14c291.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.641612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Gentle Mates70c286.79$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.033345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed EDward Gaming28c278.93$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6741537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58ba…1ae8backed EDward Gaming26c278.55$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed EDward Gaming38c269.35$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc187…efaabacked Gentle Mates62c267.1$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.15561.8%34 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x223b…971cbacked EDward Gaming25c261.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.08933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6483…750abacked EDward Gaming39c260.6$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.631650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed Gentle Mates61c253.56$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8921257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed EDward Gaming40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Gentle Mates60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1009651%49 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf7d…1f97backed EDward Gaming24c245.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed EDward Gaming39c245$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EDward Gaming41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed EDward Gaming41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c0…7e68backed EDward Gaming40c243.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+111.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d6e…7a5dbacked EDward Gaming40c241.2$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.