Serie A · resolved market

US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaab6c9e03aeb095abe872db328c0b6b85ffcbfad34867b778587c0961bb57627

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,511 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe99a…918fbacked Under	61c	5,970$3,629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,629.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	67cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over	55c	3,635$1,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,635.75	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+4.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	52c	2,739$1,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,323.92	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Under	25c	2,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under	29c	1,703$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	47c	1,561$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$821.93	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Under	65c	1,538$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.49	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under	66c	1,453$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952.4	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	63cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over	35c	999.99$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$649.99	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over	45c	894.54$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.54	131	37.4%49 W · 82 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	64c	862.31$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.7	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	36c	661$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.04	168	42.9%72 W · 96 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over	80c	625$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	112	68.8%77 W · 35 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	34c	571.21$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377	346	43.4%150 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over	42c	500$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.41	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	58c	423$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.34	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over	37c	400$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252	55	30.9%17 W · 38 L	-5.9wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Under	63c	380.95$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	102	59.8%61 W · 41 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Over	60c	331.8$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.8	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over	37c	325.83$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.83	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over	37c	325.65$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.16	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	63c	307.1$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.89	592	40.7%241 W · 351 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Over	35c	304.14$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.69	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c3…dedebacked Over	37c	270.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.27	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+47.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked Over	37c	270.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.27	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40f…1950backed Over	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd66…48e4backed Over	75c	220$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	64cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Over	63c	208.58$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.61	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed Over	36c	200$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	38cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f2…d776backed Over	37c	200$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x816e…2663backed Under	52c	199.99$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Under	60c	181$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.6	196	52%102 W · 94 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	34c	169.29$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.84	115	46.1%53 W · 62 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	49c	166$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.66	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	10c	153$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	149	36.2%54 W · 95 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under	66c	151.59$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under	64c	145.5$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.12	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	58c	140.68$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.59	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Over	79c	131.03$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.67	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-21%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	33c	130.52$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.45	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fed…0d78backed Under	64c	117$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.88	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Under	65c	110.77$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	339	51.6%175 W · 164 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	37c	108.11$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.11	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	38c	105$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	248	49.2%122 W · 126 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Under	65c	95$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.4	115	47.8%55 W · 60 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	37c	90$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.3	179	55.3%99 W · 80 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over	54c	88.44$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.68	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Over	36c	83.83$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.4	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	52c	80.72$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.12	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f89…f3eabacked Under	63c	79.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over	76c	76.97$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.47	48	66.7%32 W · 16 L	+5.0wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bf5…0144backed Under	65c	76.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over	35c	71.43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.43	194	36.1%70 W · 124 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	37c	70.95$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.7	331	44.7%148 W · 183 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	61c	67.95$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.31	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over	37c	67.57$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.57	175	38.9%68 W · 107 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x610a…3528backed Over	77c	64.94$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.94	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+69.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	37c	56.46$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.85	387	44.7%173 W · 214 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over	62c	56.45$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.45	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…614cbacked Under	64c	54.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Over	80c	54$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	104	51%53 W · 51 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Under	65c	53.85$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Under	56c	53.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13f9…3ab4backed Over	38c	52.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.63	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+4.6wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+31%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over	38c	52.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.63	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	42c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.2	368	52.7%194 W · 174 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over	36c	50$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	84	44%37 W · 47 L	+8.1wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Under	26c	49.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	37c	47.29$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.79	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+4.3wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	61c	46.08$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	43c	46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.34	118	56.8%67 W · 51 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over	36c	44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c8…b387backed Under	43c	43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Over	36c	41.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.67	120	33.3%40 W · 80 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Over	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x438c…481abacked Under	65c	38.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	55c	38$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	88	63.6%56 W · 32 L	+16.1wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xfdc4…63f6backed Under	64c	35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	60	50%30 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4278…e26dbacked Over	65c	30.89$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.89	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Under	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c80…aa9abacked Over	43c	30.6$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.35	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.8wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+24%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Over	48c	29.72$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.59	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73c5…4997backed Over	36c	29$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc8…8198backed Under	63c	23.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	57cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	76c	23.74$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.74	310	51.6%160 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9c…6b57backed Under	65c	23.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…ceeabacked Under	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-3.5wins	-0.50per pick	64cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5c06…dd56backed Under	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under	63c	19.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a45…512abacked Under	67c	18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d36…3948backed Under	63c	17.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc69a…e9f7backed Over	77c	13.26$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.05	31	74.2%23 W · 8 L	+6.3wins	+0.20per pick	54cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event