Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86a83eecddeeb788c152a548437d5fb3b8180c8fb3cacc0e7bc17e93ecabd70d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 65c | 8,838$5,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,135.54 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 30c | 8,706$2,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,626.43 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 4,249$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.49 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 63c | 4,231$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 3,717$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.17 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 20c | 980.89$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.01 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 38c | 872.18$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 36c | 869.99$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 35c | 597$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.95 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 66c | 573$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.82 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 63c | 396$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 73c | 325.8$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 36c | 324.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b17…2aa5backed Over | 64c | 212.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 65c | 201.22$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 63c | 188.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Under | 37c | 182.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 17c | 161.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 15c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Under | 38c | 108.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…9cf3backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…614cbacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Over | 64c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Over | 64c | 69.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 65c | 66.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 67c | 62.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…10b6backed Under | 38c | 54.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 68c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 75c | 47.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…4c25backed Over | 65c | 43.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…8be1backed Over | 65c | 39.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…f5efbacked Under | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 64c | 34.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…95ccbacked Under | 37c | 27.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.