Serie A · resolved market
Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3a7165bd91f70aa5923a49f5ac5f2cad64e5dab864eeed1851122e8724a6b66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cagliari Calcioof US Cremonese, Cagliari Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed US Cremonese | 20c | 3,414$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.14 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Cagliari Calcio | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed US Cremonese | 15c | 551.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 39c | 537$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.57 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed US Cremonese | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked US Cremonese | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…f30bbacked US Cremonese | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked US Cremonese | 22c | 241.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…6015backed Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 223.29$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed US Cremonese | 16c | 155.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked US Cremonese | 24c | 120.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Cagliari Calcio | 71c | 98.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked US Cremonese | 46c | 95.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9087…d582backed Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 87.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed US Cremonese | 28c | 84.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48f4…2750backed Cagliari Calcio | 79c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed US Cremonese | 28c | 47.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed US Cremonese | 28c | 37.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed US Cremonese | 56c | 33.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Cagliari Calcio | 79c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…3e20backed Cagliari Calcio | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…f8c6backed Cagliari Calcio | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed Cagliari Calcio | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Cagliari Calcio | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)this page
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.