Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c52c6655e6990e20232b6970cad57a6945e0af2cd672925e5dafdf3c218dba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 2,926$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.83 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 9c | 2,545$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.05 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Under | 72c | 1,384$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 13c | 1,248$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 1,117$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 21c | 550$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023a…be6bbacked Under | 74c | 430.65$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 314.88$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 19c | 238.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 17c | 236.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…1baebacked Over | 7c | 229.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…7a54backed Over | 9c | 163.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…3528backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 31c | 42.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 40c | 42.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49d…d5a8backed Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.