Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6287e76bc506de8a25254179a054dcc8fdf6bda757952785e784a1e827419563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe99a…918fbacked Under | 69c | 16,801$11,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,557.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 13,491$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,234.49 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 58c | 5,999$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.9 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 31c | 4,106$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.46 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 3,104$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.11 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 1,531$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.75 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 34c | 1,483$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Under | 58c | 1,314$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 17c | 1,185$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.55 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 38c | 1,165$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.53 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 5c | 946.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +7.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 40c | 753.18$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.23 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Over | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Over | 41c | 646.02$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.9 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 17c | 588.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.6 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 52c | 572.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.4 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…dedebacked Over | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 532.71$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.57 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 72c | 437.5$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 50c | 422.94$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.47 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 66c | 399.52$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.71 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Over | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 73c | 274.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 268.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 263.15$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 58c | 246.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…bad1backed Over | 41c | 231.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 59c | 226.47$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 67c | 208.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…d438backed Over | 49c | 205.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 54c | 185.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 45c | 170.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6ae2backed Over | 48c | 161.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 70c | 148.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…3528backed Over | 42c | 142.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 18c | 128.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Under | 41c | 125.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 37c | 122.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 69c | 111.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Under | 57c | 100.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 63c | 95.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 49c | 95.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…ac26backed Under | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Over | 45c | 89.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 54c | 89.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 18c | 84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Over | 35c | 78.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 51c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 48c | 63.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…bcdfbacked Over | 45c | 62.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 36c | 60.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 57c | 58.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 51c | 55.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 64c | 52.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 25c | 49.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 47c | 42.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 62c | 42.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…8000backed Under | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…67a5backed Over | 44c | 35.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 49c | 34.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 36c | 30.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 70c | 30.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Over | 41c | 29.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 66c | 27.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 61c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Under | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Under | 48c | 20.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 71c | 18.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.