Champions League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9543736619667b9bdc94b3ca618af3b0274f1f116e66ca4c6322b79a2c72de34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 54,969$7,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,582.27 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 71c | 4,288$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 2,980$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.97 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 58c | 2,525$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 59c | 2,111$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.53 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 2,108$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.64 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Over | 42c | 1,999$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.22 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 58c | 1,717$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 15c | 1,513$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 42c | 1,238$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.33 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 73c | 1,110$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.3 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 37c | 1,005$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.6 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 44c | 634.41$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.41 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 58c | 450$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 72c | 422.62$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.26 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…5b73backed Under | 71c | 422.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Over | 43c | 343$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Over | 44c | 331.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 59c | 297$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 42c | 262.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 42c | 257.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.32 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Over | 43c | 233$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 233$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cf52backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 69c | 220$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed Under | 74c | 214.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 39c | 194$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 68c | 157.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 58c | 152.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Under | 57c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 44c | 145.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 45c | 138.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 15c | 137.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…653ebacked Under | 37c | 135.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 13c | 132.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 43c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…819cbacked Under | 58c | 111.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…7b20backed Over | 74c | 94.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef4…3405backed Over | 43c | 64.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 43c | 58.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Under | 58c | 53.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 60 | 76.7%46 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…dbbfbacked Over | 43c | 51.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 67c | 46.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b8…9e37backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…dbb5backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…7c0fbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 33.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0458backed Under | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.