Champions League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8638460afc0758b6726080fc5577a7e886b29262d65b0588e123898227f5ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 3,281$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.3 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 1,910$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.8 | 600 | 41.8%251 W · 349 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 66c | 1,671$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.41 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 35c | 765.6$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.41 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…4fa1backed Over | 69c | 729.62$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Over | 66c | 606.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.05 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 35c | 380.67$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 71c | 273.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 55c | 264.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…c800backed Over | 66c | 248.81$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 65c | 246.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 62c | 220$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 19c | 219.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 34c | 178.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 154.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 66c | 151.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 54c | 145.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 69c | 144.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Over | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 66c | 129.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 202 | 56.9%115 W · 87 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 115.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 676 | 49.4%334 W · 342 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 33c | 113.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 35c | 113.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 89.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 401 | 43.4%174 W · 227 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Over | 65c | 79.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…4487backed Over | 66c | 75.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 73.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…abaabacked Over | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…68e8backed Over | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…832dbacked Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 35c | 50.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Over | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 36c | 37.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…8ff3backed Over | 65c | 35.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9a…3d32backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4050…5889backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…00d1backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…e36bbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…af5dbacked Over | 65c | 28.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…61c1backed Over | 66c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…82d1backed Over | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 65c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 53c | 21.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0268…6944backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…f8d8backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…14f6backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…be20backed Over | 65c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.