Champions League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b9e5fe868cdb49ec8180b2405ba5e1cd9e83a7561140e9dcae065da3f8a450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 3,518$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.27 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 64c | 1,551$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.77 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 77c | 1,300$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 24c | 1,248$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 79c | 1,031$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.89 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 796.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.03 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 65c | 769.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.31 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 23c | 622.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.07 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 24c | 617.53$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.12 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 25c | 477.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 76c | 416.66$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.66 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 354.03$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 25c | 340$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 38c | 292.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 42c | 250.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.14 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 76c | 227.63$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Over | 24c | 206.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 24c | 204.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 24c | 160$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 21c | 123.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 67c | 101$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 75c | 92.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…dbb5backed Over | 65c | 89.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…01fdbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…8e0dbacked Under | 41c | 36.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 36.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -8.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 63c | 24.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9181…64acbacked Under | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.