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CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$459,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$612,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $459,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb9…32f2backed Vitality56c115,625$65,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,435.6130640.2%123 W · 183 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Natus Vincere63c108,825$68,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,021.225842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Vitality38c95,362$35,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,566.277440.5%30 W · 44 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere63c55,000$34,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,649.9883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Vitality37c13,616$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,615.5825751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere58c12,917$7,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,436.4933043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Natus Vincere65c10,906$7,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,088.967147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere62c10,564$6,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,584.71,74047%817 W · 923 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere63c10,281$6,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,473.9967041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Vitality38c7,949$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,949.5216248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Vitality35c7,900$2,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1351855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Natus Vincere60c6,932$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,139.986450%32 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Natus Vincere63c6,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,78072446.4%336 W · 388 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Natus Vincere63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Natus Vincere64c4,300$2,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.5913545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Vitality49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6310047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Natus Vincere64c4,000$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.9928538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere63c3,617$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.653545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Vitality35c3,337$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.2272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Vitality37c3,272$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.9714955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Vitality37c3,064$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.9431345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Natus Vincere51c2,840$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.4517235.5%61 W · 111 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Vitality36c2,639$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.2127559.3%163 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda4c…1cc2backed Vitality38c2,376$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.654540%18 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f45…d3b8backed Vitality36c2,358$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.334261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed Natus Vincere64c2,342$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50036450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Natus Vincere43c2,244$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.7635850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked Natus Vincere65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3008445.2%38 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Vitality35c1,856$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.2213044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Vitality60c1,632$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.923,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Natus Vincere65c1,600$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0405651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Natus Vincere62c1,600$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.988847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Natus Vincere64c1,530$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.1384454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere62c1,500$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.981,09451.1%559 W · 535 L+40.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere63c1,488$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.7423932.2%77 W · 162 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Vitality36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.892360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere49c1,356$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.542,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Vitality43c1,150$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.682458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Vitality35c1,143$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.869546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf171…85febacked Vitality38c1,053$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.637350.7%37 W · 36 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc48…17b9backed Vitality49c1,050$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.88977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+61.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Vitality41c1,027$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.468966.3%59 W · 30 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere38c1,026$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.412,47244.5%1,101 W · 1,371 L-68.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Natus Vincere62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62024134.4%83 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Natus Vincere65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65014950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Vitality37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x678c…1debbacked Vitality36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6403060%18 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Natus Vincere64c999.99$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.9916149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Vitality51c985.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.2632653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Vitality77c966.81$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.8919362.2%120 W · 73 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-12.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Vitality36c833.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.3329452%153 W · 141 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Natus Vincere63c800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50470053.3%373 W · 327 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Vitality35c790$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.510549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Natus Vincere64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Vitality37c756.89$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.8915249.3%75 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Natus Vincere66c756.3$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8216047.5%76 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Vitality58c704.61$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.612642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed Vitality37c704.15$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.712021.7%26 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Vitality36c691.67$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.673447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ec…9c6dbacked Vitality73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.937255.6%40 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Vitality51c683.94$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9497445.5%443 W · 531 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…227abacked Vitality74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.681573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Vitality37c652$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.7660451%308 W · 296 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Vitality60c607.08$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.8527548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0010…c3a8backed Vitality70c601.22$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.2532573.2%238 W · 87 L+22.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Natus Vincere53c599.98$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.994839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Vitality35c579.93$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.1515642.3%66 W · 90 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed Vitality36c565.53$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.98242.7%35 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Vitality36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.5631954.5%174 W · 145 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Vitality36c550$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.567651.8%350 W · 326 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Vitality37c541$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8328243.6%123 W · 159 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Vitality37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5445639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfa5…01b3backed Vitality38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.327145.1%32 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…713dbacked Vitality47c519.83$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.274228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Natus Vincere25c517.97$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4937345.6%170 W · 203 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Vitality36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3206541.5%27 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Natus Vincere65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3256033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Vitality38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31026743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed Vitality48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26015648.1%75 W · 81 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere37c499.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1855,91137.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L+74.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3a…c3c8backed Natus Vincere65c494.71$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Vitality40c456.99$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6319342%81 W · 112 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Natus Vincere64c453.13$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29014046.4%65 W · 75 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Vitality38c430.79$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.0930527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x766c…bb56backed Vitality36c416.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.677245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd1…cfb5backed Vitality73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.962339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0fc…0ef5backed Vitality37c406.08$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.088359%49 W · 34 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Natus Vincere63c400.79$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.517247.7%82 W · 90 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Vitality36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25620444.1%90 W · 114 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Vitality35c400$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26022734.4%78 W · 149 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Vitality35c399.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.7829044.8%130 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Vitality42c396.1$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.387648.7%37 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Vitality38c384.73$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.538852.3%46 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Vitality75c384.42$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1913151.9%68 W · 63 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Vitality38c384.21$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.2139157.5%225 W · 166 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b3…6b95backed Vitality38c382.47$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+104.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Vitality34c380.45$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.136152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Natus Vincere66c375$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.510554.3%57 W · 48 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5b0…38c4backed Vitality44c372.39$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Vitality70c371.84$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8459049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.