CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4330cf5190453f00d03560effacbf2a1486b9c48c75d41c2a74cb7bce61e347e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc1d…be30backed Under | 77c | 2,443$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 2,312$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.51 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 79c | 1,646$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.23 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 22c | 899.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 22c | 614$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Over | 19c | 432.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…6ed9backed Under | 79c | 297.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…0d42backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 66c | 147.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…645dbacked Over | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 13c | 109.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 18c | 104.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 22c | 98.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…c945backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +72%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 75c | 71.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Under | 75c | 45.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam PlayoffsVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 WinnerVitality won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Vitality won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)Vitality won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.