TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$712,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$833,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $712,558 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x378d…9291backed Natus Vincere29c59,745$17,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,075.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Natus Vincere21c49,736$10,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,648.2230726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality73c44,032$32,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,779.3575758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Vitality73c40,005$29,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,900.7917042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Natus Vincere5c27,211$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.622927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Vitality72c14,480$10,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,054.435850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Vitality78c12,700$9,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.033,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Natus Vincere23c12,068$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,776.3736152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Natus Vincere8c11,894$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality73c11,243$8,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,050.8464852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked Vitality76c11,180$8,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,727.944971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Natus Vincere27c11,068$2,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.3417240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Natus Vincere27c10,962$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,959.6342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Natus Vincere0c10,387$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3913315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere26c9,080$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.6717148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Natus Vincere28c8,994$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.4412653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Natus Vincere28c7,143$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011046.4%51 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere26c7,053$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.9445848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere17c6,764$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.952,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere26c6,001$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.2578639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Vitality73c5,685$4,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.0265250.5%329 W · 323 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere5c5,668$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.923,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Natus Vincere7c5,391$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.372365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Natus Vincere18c5,331$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.286634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751f…3100backed Natus Vincere1c5,175$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b6…fdefbacked Vitality75c5,153$3,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.2510337.9%39 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere14c4,450$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.121,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Natus Vincere10c4,128$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.5414144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Natus Vincere9c4,022$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6321939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Vitality74c4,000$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05145455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Natus Vincere26c3,846$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed Natus Vincere8c3,808$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32012641.3%52 W · 74 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Vitality72c3,753$2,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.8513044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere9c3,535$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.071,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed Vitality73c3,440$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.78563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Vitality73c3,356$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.881855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Natus Vincere26c3,222$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.775848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ff…5f94backed Vitality78c3,044$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.2715259.9%91 W · 61 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Natus Vincere25c2,985$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.2442142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere17c2,957$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.8688746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Vitality72c2,899$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.726450%32 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere27c2,835$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.964552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4092…f145backed Vitality74c2,826$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.855650%28 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5846…0388backed Natus Vincere5c2,764$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1345729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Vitality73c2,731$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.863056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed Natus Vincere9c2,643$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2279040%36 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Vitality77c2,597$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.49553.7%51 W · 44 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Natus Vincere2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe878…e281backed Natus Vincere21c2,367$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.511050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b97…4d93backed Vitality72c2,265$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.058151.9%42 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere24c2,228$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.5446149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ce…212abacked Natus Vincere5c2,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.97100%0 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked Vitality72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5608445.2%38 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Natus Vincere10c2,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1987537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Natus Vincere1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109546.3%44 W · 51 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Vitality73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9641069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Natus Vincere3c1,955$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere16c1,951$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.9334147.5%162 W · 179 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Vitality76c1,933$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.165549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere15c1,913$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.381,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Vitality76c1,900$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46016149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Natus Vincere14c1,877$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26918336.6%67 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere28c1,830$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.3561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Vitality70c1,789$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.9161737.9%234 W · 383 L-22.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere6c1,775$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.182,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Natus Vincere26c1,749$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.7716935.5%60 W · 109 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a5b…3772backed Natus Vincere2c1,705$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355016%8 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Natus Vincere7c1,685$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11027831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9dd0backed Vitality77c1,665$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.024173.2%30 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83ef…b4b5backed Natus Vincere2c1,642$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Vitality73c1,600$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43227658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Natus Vincere2c1,581$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1632832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere19c1,567$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1728644.1%126 W · 160 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd57f…8966backed Natus Vincere10c1,563$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507244.4%32 W · 40 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere27c1,500$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Vitality76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36038954.5%212 W · 177 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Natus Vincere26c1,472$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.7113951.8%72 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked Vitality73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8623056.1%129 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Vitality73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8611166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e8a…42a0backed Vitality73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.862040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d66…7799backed Vitality76c1,335$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.192147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed Natus Vincere8c1,302$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…fb7bbacked Vitality77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.71560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Natus Vincere8c1,282$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere12c1,265$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15438835.8%139 W · 249 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933f…32c4backed Vitality72c1,233$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Natus Vincere2c1,200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.617548%84 W · 91 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7747…7cf2backed Vitality74c1,188$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.841861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Vitality75c1,172$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.585,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Natus Vincere11c1,153$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5329831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed Natus Vincere18c1,120$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Vitality75c1,105$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.0428443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9012…cb82backed Vitality73c1,104$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.082263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9db…3999backed Natus Vincere9c1,101$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Natus Vincere14c1,088$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1534848.3%168 W · 180 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Vitality72c1,066$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.3312153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb08…06acbacked Vitality74c1,008$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.128351.8%43 W · 40 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe193…cc85backed Vitality75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-64.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Natus Vincere2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-55.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Vitality75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.