TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,837,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,024,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,837,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 505 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere16c90,116$14,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,281.3233043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Natus Vincere15c73,474$11,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,021.0742440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Natus Vincere15c71,032$10,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,654.7825842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Natus Vincere16c48,675$7,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,830.8712449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Natus Vincere17c45,909$7,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,860.8723839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Natus Vincere13c41,662$5,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,461.341030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere16c40,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x378d…9291backed Natus Vincere22c31,806$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Natus Vincere7c29,771$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.9518624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Natus Vincere17c28,002$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,720.2611654.3%63 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Natus Vincere4c23,973$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.6842142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed Natus Vincere17c23,506$3,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9261020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Natus Vincere19c21,000$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.9921842.7%93 W · 125 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Natus Vincere17c20,437$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,474.297146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Natus Vincere16c20,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9830726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere16c19,465$3,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,114.424846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Natus Vincere17c19,083$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.4636742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Natus Vincere16c15,625$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50024940.6%101 W · 148 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…bc3cbacked Natus Vincere10c13,789$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.552334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Natus Vincere16c13,316$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.561752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere15c12,618$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.482,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9273…fcf8backed Natus Vincere19c11,340$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.282254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa290…85f3backed Natus Vincere18c10,750$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf05…b8d6backed Natus Vincere4c10,672$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere17c10,500$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,78546149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Natus Vincere16c10,400$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66410850%54 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere16c10,090$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.3653746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere16c10,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60045848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Natus Vincere5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50067041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab28…3ff0backed Natus Vincere16c9,930$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Natus Vincere3c9,493$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.612736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b9b…44c3backed Natus Vincere10c9,201$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.259540%38 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere16c9,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9796740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Natus Vincere16c8,909$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.56147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed Natus Vincere17c8,008$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.898226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Natus Vincere25c7,899$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00019834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Natus Vincere13c7,354$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.6516935.5%60 W · 109 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Natus Vincere16c7,300$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16811637.9%44 W · 72 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Natus Vincere16c6,500$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0406553.8%35 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7128…75a2backed Natus Vincere16c6,238$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere12c5,683$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.311,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed Natus Vincere4c5,252$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21212641.3%52 W · 74 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Natus Vincere1c5,001$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9635850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Natus Vincere16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Natus Vincere17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8504235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Natus Vincere16c4,840$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.235940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked Natus Vincere11c4,743$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.669044.4%40 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Natus Vincere16c4,688$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere16c4,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Natus Vincere16c4,313$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69011940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Natus Vincere13c4,225$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5444517.8%8 W · 37 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa79a…94d9backed Natus Vincere4c4,137$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Natus Vincere17c4,041$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6871855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Vitality80c4,041$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.9275350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed Natus Vincere16c4,000$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.042133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Natus Vincere18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Natus Vincere16c3,738$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59834146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fd…30f0backed Vitality80c3,690$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.088951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe87…71d8backed Natus Vincere15c3,423$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…cad0backed Natus Vincere16c3,413$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere17c3,403$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.511,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a5…86d2backed Natus Vincere1c3,384$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Natus Vincere15c3,322$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.236031.7%19 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d5…710cbacked Natus Vincere3c3,267$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Natus Vincere16c3,107$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.1210549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c65…9a3dbacked Natus Vincere18c3,080$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.387636.8%28 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3968…7cf2backed Natus Vincere1c3,050$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38b…ff41backed Natus Vincere12c3,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed Natus Vincere16c3,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8173…2bc7backed Natus Vincere17c2,903$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751f…3100backed Natus Vincere2c2,810$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Natus Vincere16c2,804$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.6526344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed Natus Vincere11c2,788$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x853b…475bbacked Natus Vincere3c2,623$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f0…c7a9backed Natus Vincere18c2,609$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked Natus Vincere18c2,572$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4557450%37 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Natus Vincere1c2,564$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Natus Vincere17c2,547$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.4416047.5%76 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9505…01c1backed Natus Vincere5c2,517$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Vitality77c2,512$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.8121939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e9…3cf1backed Natus Vincere9c2,463$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.43911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere7c2,414$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5452834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x899a…230abacked Natus Vincere20c2,333$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.61711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed Natus Vincere16c2,188$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere19c2,123$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.821,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f9…51b1backed Natus Vincere16c2,121$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3610753.3%57 W · 50 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere16c2,053$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.335,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked Natus Vincere5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008844.3%39 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Natus Vincere16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Natus Vincere11c2,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd4…39b8backed Natus Vincere17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3406637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06db…1e5cbacked Natus Vincere19c1,983$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.578146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere13c1,910$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.312,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58af…d975backed Natus Vincere16c1,905$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed Natus Vincere16c1,875$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006426.6%17 W · 47 L-12.3wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xc2fe…71d6backed Natus Vincere16c1,749$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.869048.9%44 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed Natus Vincere11c1,700$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Natus Vincere15c1,670$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.58847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.