TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$645,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$748,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $645,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 500 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Natus Vincere0c56,052$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5213315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere26c40,417$10,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,478.633,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality64c23,911$15,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,645.8676058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Natus Vincere36c22,157$7,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,961.097146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Vitality80c20,620$16,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,136.818670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Natus Vincere29c18,945$5,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,538.9930726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Natus Vincere13c15,878$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.4822927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378d…9291backed Natus Vincere36c13,966$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…bc3cbacked Vitality64c12,903$8,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,698.52334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Vitality66c11,939$7,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.4136152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Vitality73c11,089$8,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,965.791,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed Natus Vincere33c10,499$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.64731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Vitality72c10,424$7,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.3439248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Vitality65c9,799$6,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,455.3824346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Vitality74c7,500$5,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.441,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality73c7,486$5,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.181,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vitality73c7,112$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.431,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere22c6,911$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.816,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Natus Vincere30c6,857$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.653930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vitality78c6,783$5,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.382,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ce…212abacked Natus Vincere7c6,697$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500100%0 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61fe…0956backed Vitality70c6,595$4,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.710663.2%67 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Vitality67c6,411$4,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.557358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vitality75c6,239$4,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.8888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Vitality67c5,578$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.772453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Vitality79c5,490$4,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.4612653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Vitality79c5,078$4,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.6611643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Vitality65c5,000$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77053746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Natus Vincere54c4,641$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.3417240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Vitality63c4,515$2,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.7116152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Natus Vincere34c4,436$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50019055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Natus Vincere21c4,226$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.456634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Vitality66c4,154$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.8265650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere14c4,150$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.123,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Natus Vincere35c3,965$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40011166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Natus Vincere31c3,900$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20910550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Vitality67c3,838$2,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.5946345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Natus Vincere34c3,702$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.717042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce99…227abacked Natus Vincere19c3,571$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6811573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b97…4d93backed Vitality66c3,470$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.498151.9%42 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere32c3,349$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.6946149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Vitality66c3,309$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.9937157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Natus Vincere34c3,156$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07320838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere33c3,002$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.3178639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Vitality70c2,971$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.8821939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Vitality67c2,899$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.7728248.9%138 W · 144 L+21.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Vitality71c2,866$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.41,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Vitality76c2,858$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.512,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed Vitality65c2,544$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.518563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere21c2,400$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5121,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere34c2,059$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.1497040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Vitality50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00021528.8%62 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed Natus Vincere25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere13c1,989$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.441,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vitality76c1,975$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.2525555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a1e…8ecabacked Natus Vincere18c1,973$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.172055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Natus Vincere32c1,814$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58518336.6%67 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality65c1,798$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.5364852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Vitality67c1,766$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.115,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Natus Vincere10c1,756$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.334235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Vitality65c1,718$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.375549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Natus Vincere24c1,628$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.221351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere13c1,606$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.2357322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Natus Vincere15c1,583$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.529831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Vitality73c1,583$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.7917357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere36c1,568$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.6661228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Natus Vincere28c1,558$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.316854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Vitality64c1,556$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.320332.5%66 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Natus Vincere1c1,549$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4948437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Vitality78c1,543$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6998856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Natus Vincere36c1,542$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55525344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Natus Vincere32c1,540$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.425440.6%103 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed Natus Vincere34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Natus Vincere34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006836.8%25 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Vitality74c1,461$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.1141069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Vitality69c1,456$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.582360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Vitality59c1,404$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.8481751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Natus Vincere36c1,390$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.276144.3%27 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ff…5f94backed Vitality65c1,385$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.6215259.9%91 W · 61 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Natus Vincere22c1,381$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.624544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Natus Vincere33c1,376$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.0816935.5%60 W · 109 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5846…0388backed Natus Vincere12c1,367$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1645729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Natus Vincere38c1,298$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.6728453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe878…e281backed Vitality78c1,188$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.361050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b1…8801backed Vitality51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere31c1,167$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.211,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Natus Vincere36c1,113$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6814151.8%73 W · 68 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vitality69c1,100$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3415,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Natus Vincere18c1,083$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Natus Vincere26c1,075$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6510347.6%49 W · 54 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb994…5f1cbacked Vitality65c1,054$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed Natus Vincere24c1,042$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6312641.3%52 W · 74 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Natus Vincere25c1,041$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.1728046.8%131 W · 149 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Natus Vincere31c1,032$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.17757.1%44 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x835b…6f16backed Vitality64c1,017$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.123748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Natus Vincere23c1,008$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0661837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked Natus Vincere28c999.99$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2828445.2%38 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere10c970.39$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.932,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed Natus Vincere21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere23c934$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.95,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.