TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, BBL Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,818 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2560…0b02backed BBL Esports38c25,165$9,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,616.998751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed G2 Esports60c19,423$11,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,694.9413558.5%79 W · 56 L+11.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9eb9…cb5dbacked G2 Esports62c16,508$10,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,290.9515145%68 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed BBL Esports22c12,974$2,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.2346326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked BBL Esports38c9,206$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.12933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked BBL Esports38c8,612$3,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,272.733638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed BBL Esports38c8,503$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked BBL Esports38c7,974$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.1878162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed G2 Esports62c7,389$4,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked G2 Esports62c7,057$4,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,681.716747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed G2 Esports62c6,845$4,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.071163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed G2 Esports61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3404131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BBL Esports38c6,000$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,289.9912835.9%46 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed BBL Esports39c4,615$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8003339.4%13 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BBL Esports36c4,421$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.5981134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked BBL Esports38c4,348$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.272245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed G2 Esports62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52017948.6%87 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked G2 Esports63c3,887$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.23941%16 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed G2 Esports62c3,866$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.0813345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed G2 Esports62c3,613$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.95658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked G2 Esports61c3,575$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.2319046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked BBL Esports39c3,500$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3652751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed G2 Esports62c3,224$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.011346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G2 Esports73c2,919$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.319248.4%93 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked G2 Esports62c2,758$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.062744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked G2 Esports77c2,603$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.611458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fd…40ebbacked BBL Esports38c2,602$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed G2 Esports77c2,436$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.2433759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed G2 Esports62c2,303$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.882951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked G2 Esports63c2,269$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.2115850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed BBL Esports32c2,148$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.926634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed G2 Esports62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.0516952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BBL Esports38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.9524946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed BBL Esports38c2,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9962156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b4…7056backed BBL Esports40c1,983$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.513050%15 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BBL Esports39c1,815$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.7739042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked BBL Esports24c1,778$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.846336.5%23 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BBL Esports38c1,750$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Esports76c1,741$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.151,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed G2 Esports62c1,700$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.092147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed BBL Esports38c1,650$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62733348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed BBL Esports39c1,590$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62010956%61 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed G2 Esports62c1,576$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.0327546.2%127 W · 148 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed BBL Esports41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6157456.8%42 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb04…832fbacked BBL Esports16c1,495$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa446…d9c6backed G2 Esports62c1,462$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-52.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed BBL Esports39c1,350$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked G2 Esports63c1,334$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.5765559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BBL Esports16c1,293$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6688844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G2 Esports64c1,250$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45068458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked G2 Esports62c1,200$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3df…f557backed BBL Esports38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.992050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed G2 Esports61c1,100$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42926051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa390…c7d9backed BBL Esports19c1,077$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007920.3%16 W · 63 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dce…cd04backed BBL Esports28c1,075$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03d8…e73cbacked BBL Esports38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.953050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed BBL Esports20c1,051$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0517537.7%66 W · 109 L-14.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed G2 Esports74c1,023$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1114652.1%76 W · 70 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked BBL Esports18c1,008$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.675347.2%25 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed G2 Esports60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked G2 Esports60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed BBL Esports38c999.98$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.994637%17 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed G2 Esports61c999.97$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.9915553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed BBL Esports38c942.8$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.655728.1%16 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a22…2317backed BBL Esports37c941.08$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dd…d3dfbacked BBL Esports33c919.93$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49e7…7bd5backed BBL Esports38c834.21$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed G2 Esports63c833.74$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.487052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed G2 Esports62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.456251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ee…eb4fbacked BBL Esports39c775.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe9f…4c11backed BBL Esports17c775.67$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.37520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-71%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed G2 Esports64c750$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27053159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked G2 Esports68c734.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.1924457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked BBL Esports41c731.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19fe…33debacked BBL Esports38c729$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.571741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed BBL Esports22c706$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.138835.2%31 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed G2 Esports62c695.96$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.563050%15 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked BBL Esports22c677$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.179042.2%38 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed BBL Esports4c663.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.556418.8%12 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed BBL Esports38c657.9$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed BBL Esports40c654.84$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9928541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed G2 Esports63c635.08$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0819257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked BBL Esports38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22855152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed G2 Esports62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.053145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed BBL Esports19c533.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.823834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0563…340dbacked G2 Esports69c513.57$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.32060%12 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x537d…615bbacked BBL Esports39c511$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.112634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed G2 Esports62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed BBL Esports36c494.18$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.916142.9%69 W · 92 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked BBL Esports20c485.52$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6824732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc187…efaabacked G2 Esports62c461.35$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.955561.8%34 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked BBL Esports24c446$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3410840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked G2 Esports62c443.67$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5934847.4%165 W · 183 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed BBL Esports23c440$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.254632.6%15 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed BBL Esports38c427.59$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.491225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x34e8…100fbacked BBL Esports38c424.76$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed BBL Esports38c407.69$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.922060%12 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c3…16ccbacked BBL Esports25c406.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008343.4%36 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed BBL Esports38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15222047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bd…61e4backed G2 Esports62c371$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.06850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.