TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2c3…16cc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
154
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Dota2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT8343.4%36 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 83 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: G2 Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+104.5%+$51.47
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omegabacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omegabacked Dragon Ranger Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.34
Valorant: ShindeN vs Melser Kindergarten - Map 4 Winnerbacked Melser Kindergarten · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+98.1%+$98.15
Valorant: ShindeN vs Melser Kindergarten (BO5) - VCL Latin America South Playoffsbacked Melser Kindergarten · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+153.6%+$76.82
Valorant: ShindeN vs Melser Kindergarten - Map 2 Winnerbacked Melser Kindergarten · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: ShindeN vs Melser Kindergarten - Map 3 Winnerbacked Melser Kindergarten · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$156.41
Valorant: Elevate vs 2GAME Esports (BO5) - VCL Brazil: Playoffsbacked Elevate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Valorant: Elevate vs Team Solid (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Playoffsbacked Team Solid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
Valorant: 2GAME Esports vs TBK Esports (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Playoffsbacked TBK Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: SaD Esports vs sleepers (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stagebacked SaD Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Swiss Stage Group Stagebacked Evil Geniuses Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+99.3%+$99.26
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+120.4%+$120.36
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+73%+$36.51
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+79.3%+$39.64
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$112.77
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 83 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3540%14 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffsbacked Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.94
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.44
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffsbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.36
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Passion UA (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffsbacked Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.62
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffsbacked Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+239.2%+$229.06
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffsbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.76
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Parivision win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$81.58
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$92.86
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$73.45
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$78.21
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+133.5%+$66.74
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$66.28
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2528%7 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.76
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.64
Knicks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$97
Suns vs. Magicbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.88
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Kings vs. Netsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Celtics vs. Hornetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Pelicans vs. Pistonsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$28.78
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$97.65
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Hornets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Celtics vs. Spursbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.28
Raptors vs. Rocketsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Suns vs. Bucksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+82.1%+$41.07
Grizzlies vs. 76ersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Pacers vs. Lakersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+112.8%+$112.77
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$44.93
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 25 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+87.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Koreabacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australiabacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-03-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$48.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.