TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim RedForceof Nongshim RedForce, Paper Rex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,585 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafd4…7e61backed Nongshim RedForce56c10,081$5,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,385.6826050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Nongshim RedForce56c9,540$5,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,233.633060%18 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Paper Rex8c6,770$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.819240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Paper Rex43c6,515$2,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.2819248.4%93 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Paper Rex44c6,479$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,840.431136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Nongshim RedForce54c6,235$3,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.1378162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Paper Rex44c3,813$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.1168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Nongshim RedForce59c3,390$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.751450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Paper Rex46c3,371$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.5310756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Paper Rex45c3,232$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.1765559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex28c3,187$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.9388844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Nongshim RedForce57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.991291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick59cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xafa2…e45cbacked Paper Rex43c2,801$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Paper Rex45c2,729$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.6353159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9237…9c99backed Nongshim RedForce55c2,340$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Paper Rex42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.9812835.9%46 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Nongshim RedForce70c1,869$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8414652.1%76 W · 70 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aeb…01c2backed Nongshim RedForce56c1,847$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.691060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Paper Rex44c1,818$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.925244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96bb…f0fabacked Nongshim RedForce55c1,741$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.342462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Paper Rex43c1,390$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.73638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Paper Rex44c1,344$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.368751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Paper Rex42c1,088$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.394637%17 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb993…8d3fbacked Paper Rex8c1,032$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.871030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Paper Rex44c1,024$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.7628151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Nongshim RedForce55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45033348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Paper Rex39c973.03$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.122047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Paper Rex43c930.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007044.3%31 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Nongshim RedForce58c922.42$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.425250%26 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5448…0c40backed Nongshim RedForce57c879.42$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+111.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Paper Rex43c862.24$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.7612948.1%62 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Paper Rex31c703.67$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.111,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Nongshim RedForce57c698.28$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.2810956%61 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked Nongshim RedForce55c660$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Paper Rex43c599.99$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2586137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9031…5265backed Paper Rex44c586.89$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2310661.3%65 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Paper Rex41c570$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.883129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Paper Rex43c530$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.921558.1%125 W · 90 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e9c…fb5dbacked Nongshim RedForce57c509.63$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ee…eb4fbacked Nongshim RedForce57c506.07$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.613455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2116…d3c2backed Paper Rex7c504.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nongshim RedForce74c501.29$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2470251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nongshim RedForce56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22039042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeafe…c310backed Paper Rex27c463.84$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1275228.8%15 W · 37 L-8.4wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Paper Rex43c460$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.81010%1 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick46cpaid-83.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Nongshim RedForce57c460$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.862156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde19…e90dbacked Nongshim RedForce57c405.63$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.42580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked Paper Rex43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1728746%40 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nongshim RedForce56c370.35$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.9519046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Nongshim RedForce57c366.3$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5133346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Paper Rex43c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36cf…3773backed Paper Rex21c311.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.311752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Paper Rex43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12986747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Paper Rex42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Nongshim RedForce54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13815553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Paper Rex45c245.53$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1669…1363backed Paper Rex24c229.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…c0d1backed Paper Rex45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021859.2%129 W · 89 L+14.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2c3…16ccbacked Paper Rex45c221.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008343.4%36 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab08…37fabacked Paper Rex16c210$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Paper Rex25c190$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3731227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Nongshim RedForce55c182.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.751735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-36.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Paper Rex44c181.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Paper Rex24c167$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2581134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd18d…768cbacked Nongshim RedForce57c144.71$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.711855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c9e…21fdbacked Paper Rex42c141.78$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Paper Rex39c134.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf91c…eb82backed Paper Rex40c125.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502552%13 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Paper Rex43c120.21$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.696346%29 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9012…cb82backed Paper Rex45c115.56$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Paper Rex44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011152.3%58 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Paper Rex36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3654439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Paper Rex45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4523644.9%106 W · 130 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Paper Rex45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+35.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nongshim RedForce62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3853355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nongshim RedForce58c96.47$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6363652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nongshim RedForce69c91.03$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6514957.7%86 W · 63 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Paper Rex45c90.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.819540%38 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf755…8e37backed Nongshim RedForce57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nongshim RedForce53c78.53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.911,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Nongshim RedForce71c73.85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.539142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Nongshim RedForce64c72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.874353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Nongshim RedForce63c72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.439042.2%38 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Nongshim RedForce70c71.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Nongshim RedForce61c70.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5514454.2%78 W · 66 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Nongshim RedForce56c67.1$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9f…ffc2backed Paper Rex27c63.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Paper Rex48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Paper Rex27c61.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7157517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Paper Rex46c58.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.634346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nongshim RedForce72c55.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6923146.8%108 W · 123 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b9…bbe5backed Paper Rex44c54.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Paper Rex40c53.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.24533.3%15 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Paper Rex48c53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6966438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6b…58dcbacked Nongshim RedForce54c52.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.311560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Nongshim RedForce58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7262856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed Paper Rex43c51.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x706a…0d4abacked Nongshim RedForce64c46.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.653100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Nongshim RedForce62c46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2710840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Nongshim RedForce51c43.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.334356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.