TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim RedForceof Nongshim RedForce, Paper Rex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,176 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17cd…7423backed Paper Rex49c12,597$6,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,187.5412138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Nongshim RedForce51c12,324$6,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,992.6678162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Paper Rex49c5,531$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.735728.1%16 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Paper Rex77c5,076$3,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,924.247640.8%31 W · 45 L-14.7wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-38.6%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nongshim RedForce52c4,986$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.8534847.4%165 W · 183 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Nongshim RedForce56c4,526$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.351136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Paper Rex62c3,625$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.3368458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Paper Rex53c3,588$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.162951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Nongshim RedForce50c3,171$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.3734356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex43c3,116$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.3288844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Nongshim RedForce43c2,144$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.73129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Paper Rex62c2,078$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.665559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Nongshim RedForce28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44019240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Paper Rex47c1,703$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.418751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Nongshim RedForce38c1,668$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.372924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Nongshim RedForce53c1,577$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.8726051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Nongshim RedForce34c1,424$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.351741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Nongshim RedForce31c1,293$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.241450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7424…ce06backed Nongshim RedForce66c1,242$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.77785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Nongshim RedForce59c1,204$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.8719257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed Nongshim RedForce56c1,204$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.481957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed Paper Rex50c1,156$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.454060%24 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Paper Rex49c1,142$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5543857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Paper Rex63c1,112$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.461450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Nongshim RedForce51c1,110$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.854346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Paper Rex48c1,109$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.24535.6%16 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nongshim RedForce37c1,044$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.671,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Paper Rex63c1,040$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.992934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Paper Rex42c999.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.994637%17 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Paper Rex47c999.98$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.9912948.1%62 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Paper Rex45c999.93$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.9761035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Paper Rex65c974.95$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.1653159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed Nongshim RedForce31c967.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+89.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Nongshim RedForce55c901.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.913638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Paper Rex41c893.46$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.8314652.1%76 W · 70 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Nongshim RedForce58c868.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.0710956%61 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7aeb…01c2backed Nongshim RedForce52c749.99$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Paper Rex44c732.9$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4153442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Paper Rex41c694.09$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5819046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nongshim RedForce44c643.55$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.9670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Paper Rex63c639.51$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.822369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Paper Rex50c637.13$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.191,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Nongshim RedForce48c604.69$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.4436138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Nongshim RedForce32c599.99$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4096051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Paper Rex51c594.13$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9562156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb813…f0efbacked Nongshim RedForce44c582.03$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.553145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Nongshim RedForce47c580.26$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.448066.3%53 W · 27 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed Paper Rex48c577.71$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2791457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Paper Rex56c536.07$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Paper Rex51c515.54$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.879845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Paper Rex65c503$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2b1…614fbacked Nongshim RedForce58c499.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Paper Rex46c477.92$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nongshim RedForce33c466.13$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.519248.4%93 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Nongshim RedForce43c457.19$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.321558.1%125 W · 90 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b87…d7aabacked Nongshim RedForce54c453.31$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked Paper Rex47c427.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.338746%40 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Paper Rex41c421$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6114252.8%75 W · 67 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe092…d209backed Paper Rex48c417.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Paper Rex31c414.45$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0125336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb993…8d3fbacked Nongshim RedForce22c400$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3121030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Paper Rex22c400$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8624732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Nongshim RedForce25c371$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.944845.8%22 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b82…a340backed Paper Rex55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8fc…04aabacked Paper Rex48c360.42$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Nongshim RedForce37c357.35$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.133852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Nongshim RedForce51c349.15$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.5915553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Paper Rex43c344.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6981134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Nongshim RedForce56c339.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.59850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeafe…c310backed Nongshim RedForce54c327.35$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.355228.8%15 W · 37 L-8.4wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Nongshim RedForce53c302.78$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.226050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Paper Rex65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19514447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Paper Rex68c282.29$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1913357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Nongshim RedForce36c278.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8914645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Paper Rex58c278.44$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2622047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nongshim RedForce51c263.65$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3486747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Nongshim RedForce76c263.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.631050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd972…c9f4backed Nongshim RedForce43c259.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.991060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55f8…ac78backed Nongshim RedForce51c255.96$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.422441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…fec8backed Paper Rex47c249.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.52857.1%16 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Nongshim RedForce31c237.35$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.775250%26 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Paper Rex67c236.24$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8743059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6846…a82fbacked Paper Rex64c224.91$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.543158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked Paper Rex48c223.16$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.122152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Nongshim RedForce43c220.01$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.689142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed Nongshim RedForce37c200$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12721257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Nongshim RedForce59c200$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52f1…7e14backed Nongshim RedForce57c199.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb794…0aa5backed Paper Rex72c196.4$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.412638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed Nongshim RedForce54c185.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.594346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Nongshim RedForce43c176.49$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.233759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e9b…5019backed Paper Rex48c167$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Paper Rex49c164.22$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8136145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ba0…24d5backed Nongshim RedForce63c159.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.854057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Paper Rex21c158.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2218241.2%75 W · 107 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x168e…8a28backed Paper Rex49c154$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5d…f8d9backed Paper Rex47c152$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Nongshim RedForce54c148.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1414454.2%78 W · 66 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Nongshim RedForce53c140.03$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1533346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Paper Rex47c139.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0920755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.