TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Magic, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,518,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,652,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,518,999 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Magic47c342,067$161,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,492.2672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb6e…48e6backed Raptors52c215,404$112,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,393.682661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x893b…a860backed Magic1c120,183$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Magic45c103,489$47,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,020.319053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Magic49c52,510$25,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,73023147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors54c48,574$26,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,415.994,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Magic46c48,328$22,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,230.679655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Raptors58c46,785$27,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,643.2820744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic48c44,312$21,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,269.871,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic14c42,035$5,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,750.584,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Magic48c40,000$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,199.9612639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Raptors53c37,325$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,724.983,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x70ce…079fbacked Magic44c31,300$13,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,7721526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors54c30,128$16,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,762.884,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Raptors52c30,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,4001,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Raptors54c29,858$16,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,715.5632540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors52c25,555$13,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,266.41,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Raptors53c25,483$13,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,062.892,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Magic7c25,000$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.195641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors57c23,893$13,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,302.542,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Raptors54c21,507$11,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,893.41,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Magic46c20,970$9,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6468452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Raptors52c20,800$10,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9843554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic1c20,034$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.981,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Magic48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Raptors52c19,273$10,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,250.922,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7792…b63bbacked Raptors56c18,300$10,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,051.994940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Magic49c17,928$8,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,711.0813842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Raptors55c17,377$9,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,779.5311543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors53c16,378$8,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,667.14,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic45c15,976$7,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,189.41,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9557…7136backed Raptors54c15,741$8,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,179.941020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic13c14,966$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.953,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Raptors52c14,510$7,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,964.696144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Raptors56c13,480$7,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,977.6286641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Raptors56c13,332$7,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,932.7441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Magic2c13,108$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.163179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Magic47c12,583$5,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,913.8535547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4dd…3f0fbacked Magic46c12,000$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,520714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-77.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Raptors54c12,000$6,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5209159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Magic46c12,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,55058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Raptors56c11,300$6,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,971.964445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Raptors56c10,500$5,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,659.3643438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Raptors56c9,600$5,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,258.9265939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab28…3ff0backed Raptors54c9,282$5,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,269.78450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Raptors56c9,264$5,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,076.3662347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors71c8,961$6,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.68,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Magic45c8,877$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.6519957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4aa2…8373backed Raptors56c8,800$4,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802a…ddecbacked Magic44c8,800$3,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,87210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfd…3e5cbacked Raptors56c8,750$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3409…1871backed Magic44c8,742$3,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,846.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c99…745cbacked Raptors56c8,650$4,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…16bbbacked Magic44c8,650$3,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Raptors48c8,508$4,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,432.811843.2%51 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors54c8,114$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,767.756,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Magic43c8,000$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4404254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Magic1c7,868$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.187211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b6…fbbbbacked Raptors53c7,597$4,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,570.523256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Raptors55c7,409$4,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,334.092055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Magic8c7,292$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.776339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Magic52c7,018$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.1570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Magic43c7,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,01015844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Magic46c6,742$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.3315349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502a…3e84backed Raptors54c6,500$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9902100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Magic45c6,431$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.741,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd208…8406backed Magic44c6,400$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,816333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2a42backed Magic12c6,266$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.939851%50 W · 48 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Raptors52c6,240$3,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…d061backed Raptors57c5,781$3,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.74633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8306…3d93backed Raptors54c5,632$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x808f…0c6ebacked Raptors56c5,500$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Raptors53c5,371$2,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,524.2922137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec6…f355backed Magic46c5,300$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4383847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e6…7ce6backed Raptors54c5,300$2,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4381855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Magic46c5,286$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.355754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Magic48c5,143$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.9112058.3%70 W · 50 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55d1…4c30backed Magic46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa56a…3072backed Raptors71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45011555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Raptors53c4,970$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.047850%39 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa438…8605backed Magic44c4,834$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.982035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Raptors53c4,717$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.9826648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Raptors57c4,680$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.881,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked Raptors53c4,670$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.8712042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Magic46c4,348$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Magic46c4,292$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.141,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Magic54c4,204$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,26010252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Magic18c4,187$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Magic46c4,125$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.261,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors68c4,123$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.925,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ebbabacked Magic44c4,100$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80440%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cbc…c413backed Magic47c4,043$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9003056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Magic45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Magic49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Raptors52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9202,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x340e…36f4backed Magic43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.994652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b4f…267ebacked Magic29c3,960$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.384553.3%24 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96ad…5195backed Magic46c3,913$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x522f…1342backed Raptors57c3,883$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…7d65backed Magic44c3,597$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.