NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20acb4100e7a5c969746e4242c6658697fae4128752afb41bea352e943bd2531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.77 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 1,529$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.52 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab8…7f7fbacked Over | 48c | 1,268$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…e9d1backed Over | 48c | 1,256$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 1,047$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.85 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…f955backed Under | 53c | 940$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 854.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Under | 69c | 709$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 54c | 648.48$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.1 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…c865backed Under | 72c | 578.07$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.09 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 18c | 546.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 69c | 545$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.33 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Over | 6c | 533$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Over | 13c | 523$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Over | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Over | 19c | 473$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 427.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 16c | 394$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 44c | 334.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Over | 49c | 304$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 68c | 293.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over | 22c | 279$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 47c | 276$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 254.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 52c | 206.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 25c | 202.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…1937backed Under | 23c | 169$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 156.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 150.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 137.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Over | 48c | 137.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 134.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 47c | 112.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Over | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…593ebacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +9.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +291%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x647c…a772backed Over | 52c | 96.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 96.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Over | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 74.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 72.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…9747backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…b8ffbacked Under | 53c | 66.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 52c | 60.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 52c | 59.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 53.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 52c | 49.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 42.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 60c | 35.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Under | 63c | 31.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -17.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 25.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 58c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…92d8backed Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Magic vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.