NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3659092e9c2ba0bfbe5c277bf3e941f913835ae5dbb7a973e7d257e03a52b8b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Magic | 47c | 27,027$12,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,702.61 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Raptors | 53c | 13,593$7,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,417.01 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 48c | 7,022$3,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.34 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Raptors | 53c | 6,896$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.48 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…4385backed Raptors | 53c | 5,350$2,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Raptors | 53c | 3,054$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.2 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Raptors | 52c | 2,662$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.65 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Magic | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Raptors | 49c | 2,072$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.85 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Raptors | 51c | 1,960$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.4 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Raptors | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors | 53c | 1,584$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.48 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Magic | 47c | 1,483$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.46 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c8…04febacked Magic | 49c | 1,375$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors | 49c | 649.45$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.83 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Magic | 49c | 612.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Raptors | 53c | 566$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Magic | 47c | 329.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Raptors | 51c | 306$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.94 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Raptors | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Raptors | 52c | 266$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Raptors | 53c | 210.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Raptors | 53c | 159.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Raptors | 52c | 157.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Raptors | 53c | 132.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…83b5backed Magic | 48c | 112.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Raptors | 46c | 107.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…a40bbacked Magic | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 55.2%80 W · 65 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…ad3dbacked Raptors | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…2e1abacked Magic | 50c | 89.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 47c | 68.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8742…5e43backed Magic | 49c | 67.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 51c | 61.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Magic | 48c | 59.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…9337backed Magic | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…e226backed Magic | 49c | 50.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Raptors | 53c | 46.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 59c | 45.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Magic | 49c | 44.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 193 | 57.5%111 W · 82 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…b634backed Magic | 48c | 43.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Raptors | 51c | 40.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Raptors | 43c | 33.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors | 51c | 33.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 52c | 31.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Magic | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Magic | 49c | 29.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Raptors | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…6437backed Magic | 51c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Raptors | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…d525backed Magic | 51c | 22.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors | 52c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…7f2cbacked Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)this page
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Magic vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.