TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Jazz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Pelicans, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,471,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,538,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,471,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,047 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Jazz31c439,855$137,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137,374.7787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Jazz33c299,748$98,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,91787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Pelicans67c240,000$160,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,20026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Pelicans69c239,127$164,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,129.2643542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans68c189,317$128,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,995.971,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Pelicans67c80,747$54,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,646.466352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Pelicans69c75,000$51,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,249.8811955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pelicans70c71,005$49,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,301.971,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Jazz32c65,965$21,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,156.2851354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz23c47,606$10,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,756.264,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Jazz31c43,669$13,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,537.241,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Jazz33c42,552$14,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,042.2129650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Jazz32c41,733$13,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,354.4454539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Jazz33c39,962$13,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,187.571,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Jazz6c36,282$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.331,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Jazz1c35,092$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4428616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz28c34,364$9,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,779.862,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pelicans67c33,838$22,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,166.431,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Jazz32c31,559$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Jazz0c30,019$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1967921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Jazz0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pelicans70c24,562$17,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,423.371,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…e800backed Pelicans68c22,971$15,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,350.851464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50bd…962abacked Jazz3c21,691$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.435841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eda…9c47backed Jazz13c20,942$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Jazz32c20,815$6,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,660.819957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Pelicans67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,60020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Pelicans68c18,255$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,755.391,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Jazz1c17,845$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Pelicans68c17,000$11,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,44031644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Jazz31c16,302$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,053.5537539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f04…73d5backed Pelicans70c16,300$11,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8905444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Jazz30c16,300$4,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.98441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans68c16,036$10,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,092.734,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Pelicans68c15,962$10,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,107.7113959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jazz24c15,277$3,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,708.112,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Jazz1c15,090$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.91,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Jazz32c15,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Pelicans68c14,706$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.8834456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pelicans69c14,658$10,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,514.152,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x512e…4f1bbacked Jazz33c14,124$4,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,660.857030%21 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…5c46backed Jazz0c14,007$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+339.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Jazz33c13,822$4,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,561.1713142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans70c12,773$8,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,813.935,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Pelicans70c12,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6009054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Jazz30c12,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.968640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Jazz2c11,246$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.493179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jazz17c11,172$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.741,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Jazz1c10,927$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.987211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Jazz1c10,714$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7567911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Jazz32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2006943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Pelicans68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.978052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f8…6699backed Jazz33c9,901$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.333354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x648d…1366backed Pelicans68c9,901$6,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,168.323336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz11c9,878$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.848,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Jazz32c9,746$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.9716943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Jazz30c8,905$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.4335547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Jazz1c8,405$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010334%35 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Pelicans69c8,142$5,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,524.0248352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jazz0c8,077$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.328820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Pelicans68c7,499$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.1948956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Jazz3c6,700$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.311,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4c…444cbacked Pelicans72c6,684$4,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.576440.6%26 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Jazz33c6,666$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.7841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jazz20c6,520$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.7181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Jazz3c6,355$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ab…e0debacked Pelicans67c6,007$4,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac4…2b17backed Jazz30c6,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans68c5,860$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.974,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Jazz16c5,775$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.5289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz32c5,453$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.694,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0274…3928backed Jazz1c5,392$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jazz6c5,187$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.721,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc264…fbe8backed Pelicans70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.123100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Jazz31c5,000$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.4725947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Pelicans68c5,000$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57744252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Pelicans69c4,933$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.229250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Pelicans67c4,478$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.6113563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbfe…7766backed Jazz3c4,425$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+54%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Pelicans69c4,162$2,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.8162144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Pelicans68c4,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Pelicans67c3,937$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.3125452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x248b…c29ebacked Pelicans70c3,733$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.751050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Jazz2c3,675$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e2…2157backed Jazz11c3,573$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Pelicans68c3,503$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.4755346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac7…2086backed Pelicans70c3,500$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb178…75adbacked Jazz30c3,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Pelicans67c3,333$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.8714753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz32c3,235$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.351,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Pelicans68c3,235$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.2941954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6b…a33dbacked Jazz1c3,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110914.7%16 W · 93 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Jazz32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Jazz32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Pelicans77c3,087$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.3127865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Jazz33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009944.4%44 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf6…1395backed Jazz33c3,024$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.925054%27 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+30.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5261…3ddbbacked Jazz12c3,013$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3642548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Pelicans68c2,985$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.220355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Pelicans68c2,941$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.185848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.