TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Pistons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Raptors, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,883,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,132,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,883,569 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pistons60c190,051$114,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,852.336549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Raptors40c100,842$40,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,645.0438253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Raptors41c80,207$32,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,782.6860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c36…7854backed Pistons59c58,524$34,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,994.842263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Raptors41c52,981$21,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,952.111,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Pistons76c49,517$37,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,897.978750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Raptors41c47,854$19,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,620.141,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors17c39,263$6,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,689.553,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Raptors16c38,853$6,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,315.531,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Raptors38c35,976$13,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,541.821,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pistons59c30,166$17,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,310.642,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pistons69c28,857$19,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,987.151,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Pistons63c27,917$17,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,326.7120744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Raptors40c26,995$10,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,712.0749244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Raptors41c25,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.9610236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f3a…7067backed Pistons59c24,798$14,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,167.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Raptors43c20,336$8,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,680.8337448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1520…0ddfbacked Raptors41c20,000$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,199.971963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Pistons59c19,508$11,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,998.2820758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Raptors41c18,938$7,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,764.5819957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Raptors1c17,072$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.343179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Pistons58c16,971$9,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,089.066547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Raptors41c15,938$6,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,534.399159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba04…310bbacked Raptors1c15,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Raptors31c15,000$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,649.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Raptors42c14,729$6,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,183.218728.7%25 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Raptors41c14,357$5,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,936.7586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Raptors42c13,633$5,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,665.7965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be5…5741backed Raptors43c13,541$5,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,804.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Pistons56c12,774$7,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,587.8274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Pistons61c12,314$7,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,759.1729250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked Raptors41c10,832$4,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,458.1312042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Pistons58c10,380$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.5732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Pistons56c10,100$5,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,393.9662347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Pistons60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0006144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Pistons59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.8218045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pistons58c9,999$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.7831445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Raptors0c9,979$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.825213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons67c9,752$6,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,230.892,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Raptors1c9,050$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5235744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Raptors2c9,044$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9740849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons68c8,949$6,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.793,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Raptors0c8,752$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.598820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca5a…5d29backed Pistons63c8,056$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.721428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raptors41c8,000$3,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2802,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x816e…b215backed Raptors42c7,866$3,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,268.872433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Raptors41c7,811$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.2327455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Raptors1c7,752$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0267911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90eb…db79backed Pistons69c7,436$5,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.716060%36 W · 24 L+9.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raptors22c7,148$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.722,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Raptors1c7,100$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4418151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc86a…bcabbacked Pistons60c6,944$4,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.611764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Raptors38c6,724$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.0712639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Pistons80c6,284$5,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.2124151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Raptors42c6,154$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.841,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Raptors1c5,767$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.537211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors28c5,741$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.288,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa972…e42dbacked Pistons66c5,608$3,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.887100%7 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Raptors41c5,517$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,261.8441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Raptors37c5,331$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.5426444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Raptors40c5,242$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.6143438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47dc…96f2backed Pistons60c5,108$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.327100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Raptors2c5,014$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8947748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Raptors41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0501,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Pistons59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.9519751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Raptors28c4,946$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.81,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors39c4,871$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.24,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Raptors43c4,832$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.6712058.3%70 W · 50 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Raptors41c4,813$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.2322137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Raptors0c4,694$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.781234.9%6 W · 117 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Raptors40c4,580$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.841,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons69c4,561$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.833,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Pistons60c4,481$2,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.49746.4%45 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e4…3705backed Raptors34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+76.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Raptors40c4,000$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.7757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Pistons59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.9212945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Pistons60c3,980$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.935567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Pistons59c3,902$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.6687750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors0c3,796$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a6…03cabacked Raptors34c3,688$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+76.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Raptors42c3,592$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.6117356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Pistons57c3,418$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.8520843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Pistons67c3,411$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.4916959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raptors41c3,376$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.282442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors42c3,337$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.114,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Raptors10c3,333$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8458740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pistons59c3,263$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.322,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Raptors40c3,257$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.061,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors41c3,203$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.431,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Raptors41c3,185$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.051,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fb…d13abacked Pistons74c3,173$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.1229165.6%191 W · 100 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Pistons58c3,120$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.6721350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e65…694fbacked Raptors30c3,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.992330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Pistons57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.9847043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…cd68backed Raptors42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Pistons68c2,950$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94412756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Raptors15c2,835$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.8824937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Raptors1c2,734$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked Raptors41c2,577$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.524240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d9f…ff8ebacked Pistons60c2,521$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.