TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof NRG, FURIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,709,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,709,632 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 835 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked FURIA77c196,000$150,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,74039249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked NRG23c184,772$43,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,175.4342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked NRG24c105,617$24,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,981.853036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed NRG26c71,835$18,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,990.9222142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked FURIA71c50,609$36,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,506.177147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked FURIA77c48,000$36,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,039.9922354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked FURIA65c44,206$28,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,255.7914954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed FURIA72c36,341$25,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,351.172860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked NRG44c36,098$15,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,750.4283652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed NRG22c30,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.984238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe262…4097backed NRG48c29,350$14,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,211.994537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked NRG34c27,491$9,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,354.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed NRG45c26,390$11,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,875.417363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed NRG17c24,742$4,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,208.5530340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked NRG22c23,182$5,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,134.2619229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed FURIA62c22,887$14,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,685.867256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed FURIA73c21,904$15,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,914.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FURIA66c19,995$13,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,898.0972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FURIA74c19,995$14,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9776058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed NRG23c19,538$4,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,493.6922049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked FURIA55c18,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,10019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed NRG45c15,710$7,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000.884731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed NRG44c15,204$6,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,689.763435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FURIA78c14,675$11,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,231.0538358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed FURIA59c14,175$8,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,773.2339248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FURIA75c14,016$10,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.0622448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed NRG27c13,930$3,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,733.6567041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked NRG24c13,277$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,17613553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed FURIA69c13,110$9,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,024.341,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed NRG24c13,098$3,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,208.5246149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed NRG23c12,963$2,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,981.4423839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked FURIA74c12,621$9,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.8121939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc2…9c0dbacked NRG30c11,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.9912637.3%47 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed NRG31c10,913$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.2714441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9c…b3e0backed NRG46c10,795$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+70%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FURIA78c10,744$8,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.6246949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FURIA72c10,517$7,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.213,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b9…0eddbacked NRG31c10,423$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,186.534645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked FURIA78c10,215$7,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.3435850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked NRG23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3008654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed FURIA77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9919055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FURIA74c9,599$7,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.572,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FURIA77c9,524$7,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.931,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed FURIA62c9,320$5,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,557.731838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA66c8,957$5,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.422,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked FURIA75c8,783$6,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.115441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked NRG26c8,298$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.6116240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA62c7,114$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,681.521,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked FURIA78c6,413$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.2820458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA64c6,360$4,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.721,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed NRG31c6,077$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.534259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf77c…766dbacked NRG47c6,050$2,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked FURIA59c5,557$3,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.9181751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA62c5,361$3,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.4188746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked NRG25c5,189$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.9917945.3%81 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed NRG27c5,026$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.1970%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked NRG23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15014934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed NRG23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15019645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed NRG22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10035153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA71c4,858$3,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.415,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed NRG21c4,737$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.8848437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked FURIA71c4,500$3,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.198445.2%38 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f3…c888backed FURIA77c4,314$3,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.22366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed NRG1c4,281$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8181843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed NRG45c4,213$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.6822849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed FURIA78c4,039$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.9626549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked NRG45c4,010$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.724943.8%109 W · 140 L-1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked NRG22c4,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked FURIA78c3,857$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.5127452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed NRG27c3,751$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.551,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bff…7074backed NRG27c3,696$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked FURIA77c3,673$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.786147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed NRG30c3,630$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.866747.8%32 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed NRG26c3,519$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.937943%34 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed FURIA57c3,423$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.8112449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0e…ad94backed FURIA76c3,411$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.6511365.5%74 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed FURIA78c3,072$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.8523557.4%135 W · 100 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed NRG26c3,063$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.436716.4%11 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked NRG23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69035940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FURIA62c3,000$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.541,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed FURIA56c2,946$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.4335236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FURIA74c2,939$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.3332930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed FURIA51c2,904$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.474052.5%21 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed NRG45c2,897$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.5264552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11a2…db39backed FURIA71c2,801$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.251553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed FURIA78c2,529$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.34045%18 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed NRG23c2,514$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.1729831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed FURIA71c2,460$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.996245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked FURIA75c2,429$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.249848%47 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked NRG43c2,301$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.1398052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed NRG26c2,242$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58324944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbea…8e58backed NRG45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed NRG25c2,164$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.1711940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed NRG27c2,142$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.531241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x065d…f0f1backed FURIA75c2,142$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.941464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf131…36f7backed FURIA60c2,086$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.351369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+66.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked NRG44c2,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87029127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed FURIA77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46014950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FURIA77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46053746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked FURIA66c2,000$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.2243640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.